TO SAY that the current economic outlook is uncertain is by now both a grotesque understatement and something of a cliché.
Asked to predict the direction of the dry market at last week’s CMA conference, a competent panel of industry experts pulled out their latest software for inspection — a crystal ball. They were only half joking when they said it was about as accurate as you could get right now.
The known unknowns are all out there for everyone to see and hedge their bets on. Will the US recession (for that is what we are looking at) turn out to be short and shallow as everyone hopes, or are we in this for the long haul?
Will the Fed’s strategy take hold and can they keep their problems within domestic borders? Inflation is still looking high despite the central bank’s best efforts and with credit conditions tightening across all sectors any remaining pockets of growth are looking perilously fragile right now.
On the other hand, demand continues to look as unstoppable as ever and while the current orderbook is dangerously large few seem to believe everything will get delivered on time, if at all. Then again there is the scrapping situation and the delicate balance between fear and greed, as one owner put it to us recently.
On the whole, the trend towards increasing uncertainty seems to be the only prediction anyone is willing to make right now, and it is a good one to take note of. Flexibility and having the ability to be nimble and adaptable in changing times is key to success in these changing times. Take care of the downside and the upside will look after itself.
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