Déjà vu

By Janet Porter

Thursday 3 April 2008

THERE is a sense of inevitability about what is happening in the container trades.

The lines enjoyed a few bumper years as manufacturers outsourced to China and owners rushed to place newbuilding orders on an unprecedented scale. But just as those ships start to enter service, so demand begins to falter in the world’s biggest economy.

Few could have envisaged the sub-prime fiasco that is now denting confidence worldwide. But neither did most anticipate the Asian currency crisis, the September 11 atrocities, the Sars outbreak.

The unexpected always gets in the way of accurate forecasting, and yet the business community has to plan long-term when considering billion-dollar investments.

Imagine the outcry if world trade had been stymied by a lack of tonnage because shipowners had decided not to risk their fortunes on fleet upgrades and instead had put their money elsewhere — although hopefully not into the hands of incompetent bankers.

Now, though, they have the unenviable task of trying to phase in the biggest containerships ever built, just as two of the world’s largest east-west trade lanes (the Pacific and Atlantic) stutter. Worse, the mighty Asia-Europe trade also appears to be running into trouble.

This may be no more than a blip, but there will be some nervous folk out there if European import volumes slow and lines are forced to cut rates to tempt cargo. Now where have we seen that before?

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