Newsroom Blog
NEWS that the Baltic Dry Index enjoyed its biggest rise in 24 years with a hefty 14% rise on Thursday has brought much cheer to beleaguered dry bulk shipping stocks.
However the upturn needs to be kept in context. This pushed the BDI to just under 1,500 points, a level which if forecast a year ago would have been low enough to turn the average shipowner white.
In effect what has been seen over the last week is a very welcome bounce in freight rates driven largely by a pick-up in Chinese iron ore imports that crumbled dramatically in the last quarter of 2008.
Chinese steel traders and mills are now restocking, which has boosted shipping demand. Looking though at the longer term demand trend, major Chinese steel mills are still cutting production 20% to 30% and the figures for the industry in Europe and Japan are even greater.
Such figures do not point to a sustained recovery rather a short term spike in demand, with shipping volumes trailing off again once stockpiles are replenished.
This could be a sign that dry bulk shipping will start seeing the kind of short term volatility witnessed in the large tanker markets where rates for very large crude carriers are often seen to plunge from year highs to year lows in a matter of weeks as demand fluctuates.
This would not be an easy market for shipowners to manage, but is at least better than having sustained periods of freight rates on the floor.
Comments (3)
Comment by
Mr. Mark Anthony
- Wednesday 11 February 2009
SO you think unless BDI stages a spectacular rally of 10 fold increase over one night, unless it does that, you still think the shipping market is bearish?
That's absurd. Nothing changes overnight. BDI has put out the strongest string of rally any one can expect: A continuous 16 days of going only up and never down, and BDI reaches triple it's value from the bottom of 666 on December 4, 2008, in a little over two months.
You have to read this to understand the fundamental reason why BDI would stage such a strong rally so quickly:
http://tinyurl.com/b24oxr
Please, study the facts first.
Comment by
Mr. Aly-Khan Satchu
- Monday 9 February 2009
Dear Marcus,
It was very much the Forward Indicator of choice and was ahead of the curve in signalling the disjunctive cratering of demand. The Low at 666.00 or thereabouts was egregious but I think the recent bounce [and you quite correctly note the Pavlovians are back] is off a very low base and hence difficult to know whether it is something more than a dead cat bounce.
Your point about price volatility is we ll made. I think the Crude Oil contango was responsible in large part for same. I think black swan like price volatility is here to stay.
Aly-Khan Satchu
www.rich.co.ke
Comment by
Captain Doctor Ivica Tijardovic, PhD
- Sunday 8 February 2009
When the Baltic Dry Index reaches an all time high of 11,793 and less than seven months later falls to its 22-year low of 663, it is time to recognise the serious problems the shipping market has. If the demand for some ships, let’s say capesize vessels is showing improvement, that doesn’t mean our problems are over. The serious problems in shipping will not disappear overnight or just in a couple of months if we keep thinking that money is the only measure of success. The high level of professionalism everywhere based on honesty and understanding is what we need in shipping. Without that kind of professionalism the clouds of gloom in the shipping are not transient.
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