Newsroom Blog
What lies ahead
By Lloyds List Comment
Monday 27 April 2009
WHAT will global shipping look like in 2030? With so much attention focused on the maritime industry’s near-term prospects, few have turned the clock forward 20 years to picture how it could evolve.
One study that has is the Columbia University’s Center for Energy, Marine Transportation & Public Policy, through its Maritime Transportation 2030 project.
Interim results highlight the need for the International Maritime Organization to generate consensus and move more rapidly to the forefront of regulatory change.
Otherwise replacement regimes will develop, fragmenting standards. The centre’s executive director, Albert Bressand, highlights pent up demand for a “changed governance model” for shipping. He identifies the key drivers of change as a heightened demand for sustainability and security, amid volatility.
Dr Bressand believes existing regulatory models are “showing signs of strain” and the next 20 years could see the onset “of the first true technological revolution since the container”.
He identified three possible scenarios in shipping’s future. Under an “open seas” scenario, the shipping industry got the global regulatory model it wanted, with international standards certified by regional agencies, with competition law the key regulatory instrument.
But under a second “empowered port states” scenario, governments or states like California stepped in with their own laws and regulations. This was not necessarily a bad world for shipping, as profits could be quite high in a fragmented environment.
But criminalisation of seafarers could add to manning difficulties, and there would be higher transportation costs.
The third scenario was bleaker, featuring the “strong hand of the state but in a less friendly manner”, and characterised by uncoordinated policies, inconsistent standards, with oversight stringent in some areas and less so in others.
A fourth scenario, which would result from a massive upheaval such as an oil spill, or major environmental impact from shipping is still under development.
The centre is now developing business models to accompany these different worlds, with further industry input.
Forecasting is often imprecise. But the need for a swifter, cohesive and more responsive representation at the highest industry levels is all too obvious if shipping wants a greater say in managing its future.
Comments (1)
Comment by
Anonymous
- Monday 27 April 2009
These are Sci Fi scenarios. The present crisis proved it is not possible to make reliable forecasts. There are other unknown factors which can influence the market and as it seems, even the economists and the market laws are at a loss for words when it comes to the unknown factors.
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