Newsroom Blog
Swine flu alert
By Lloyds List Comment
Wednesday 29 April 2009
PESTILENCE, war, and famine continue to be unwelcome companions, despite the astonishing scientific, political and technological advances of modern times.
This much is clear as the death count mounts from the outbreak of swine flu and mankind is humbled once again by an ancient and untamed enemy.
Fatalities have been confined to Mexico but numerous other countries around the world have either confirmed or suspected cases of the deadly virus.
Shipping cannot stand aloof from the progress of the virus, which could ultimately affect trade and limit freedom of movement.
While there is no way of knowing how serious the economic impact of swine flu will become, it is worth recalling another time when there was a pandemic alert — severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003.
Sars spread from China’s Guangdong province rapidly to infect individuals in 37 countries, although it was relatively short-lived and with the worst effects mainly regional.
The Asian Development Bank estimated that the overall loss in demand and business revenue was some $60bn.
In shipping, crew shore leave was banned in affected areas and the World Health Organisation announced new procedures for the management of probable Sars cases on international shipping, including the possibility of holding an affected vessel and crew for up to 10 days in port.
Shipyards suffered, with vessels being diverted to safer regions for repairs.
One Singapore yard claimed it had lost as many as 20 jobs worth around S$20m ($13.4m) in the first half of 2003 due to the impact of the virus.
Cruise shipping was inevitably hit badly.
Star Cruises repositioned two vessels operating out of Hong Kong and Singapore to Australia after cancelling Asian itineraries but still sustained a loss in the first-half of 2003.
More significantly, two cruise companies which went out of business — Festival and Royal Olympic — cited the Sars crisis as a contributory factor.
Given Mexico’s importance to cruise shipping in Caribbean itineraries, as well as on the country’s west coast, the pain is being felt here first.
But cargo shipping cannot expect to escape the impact of swine flu if the need to contain the outbreak grows.
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