Somali pirates unlikely to back down, says expert

David Osler - Thursday 13 November 2008

SOMALI pirates are unlikely to reduce attacks on merchant shipping, despite the killing of two - and perhaps three - of their number in a recent shootout with the Royal Navy, an expert predicted today.
 
While pirates are well aware that their activities potentially put their lives on the line, they look at the paucity of naval vessels in the region and calculate that the odds of success remain high, he argued.
 
Given the risk-reward ratio on offer and the reality that in Somalia, violence can easily find you even if you don’t set out to find violence, piracy still seems a good career move for many young Somali men. 

The Royal Navy’s deadly engagement with pirates came earlier this week, during an exchange of fire with a dhow suspected of involvement in an attack on an undetermined vessel off the coast of Yemen. A third man died later in circumstances that remain to be confirmed. 

Britain’s Ministry of Defence confirmed that an incident took place on Tuesday, when marines on board two assault craft launch from HMS Cumberland attempted to intercept the pirate ship, after “various non-forcible methods” to stop it proved unsuccessful. 

According to the MoD, the pirates opened fire first and the fatalities occured after the fire was returned. After that, the Somalis complied in allowing the Royal Navy to board the dhow. 

Russia has claimed that its frigate Neustrashimy also took part in the engagement, although the extent of its role is disputed. 

An MoD statement added: “Two foreign nationals, believed to be Somali pirates, were shot and killed in self-defence. A Yemeni national was also found injured and later died, despite receiving emergency treatment from the ship’s doctor. 

”It is unclear whether his injuries were as a result of the firefight or a previous incident involving the pirates. As with all shooting incidents, a post shooting incident investigation is currently being conducted.” 

The statement names the merchant ship that had been attacked earlier as Powerful, and describes it as Danish registered. Of the three vessels of that name on government and commercial databases, none is Danish flag, and neither the International Maritime Bureau nor a Royal Navy spokesman could offer positive identification. 

Roger Middleton, author of recent report on Somalia for the influential Chatham House foreign affairs think tank, said that despite sustaining casualties, he did not expect pirates to cease or even cut back on attempts to hijack merchant shipping. 

“They certainly don’t want to get themselves shot. They know they are outgunned by naval forces in the area, but work on the assumption that the area covered is enormous and they have a pretty good chance of being able to carry out pirate attacks without getting caught. I don’t think it will scare them off,” he said. 

Somali pirates come from a very poor region in a dangerous country with a lot of fighting, and stand a good chance of getting shot at even if they sit at home without doing anything illegal, he points out. 

From the pirate’s perspective, weapons and boats are cheap, smuggled petrol can be had from Yemen, and they can still make big money without being successful every time. 

“Things like this [the deaths] will make them a little bit more cautious, hopefully. What it may do is make the sight of a frigate on the horizon just that bit more scary and make that deterrent even more effective.”
Meanwhile, Islamic insurgents have reportedly seized the strategic Somali port of Merka, leaving the way clear for an assault on the capital, Mogadishu, about 50 miles away. 

The fighters were able to take the city without firing a shot after government troops fled the night before, residents said. The attack follows similar seizures of the port of Kismayo and other cities. 

After being turned out of Mogadishu in December 2006 by Ethiopian troops, the insurgency has retaken much of the territory was forced to cede at the time.
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