THE Red Sea attacks are unlikely to ease until the fighting in Gaza subsides and military strikes against the Houthis on land will not help, a defence researcher says.

Shipping has welcomed the US-led Operation Prosperity Guardian, which includes Canada and European countries but not Middle East Gulf states except for Bahrain.

Dr Andreas Krieg, associate professor at the Institute for Defence Studies at King’s College London, said the attacks on international shipping could subside in January if the worst of the fighting in Gaza ends, however he warned that ships heading to Israel would likely face a long-term threat. 

He also warned that there was little that Western militaries could do to hit back at the Houthis without worsening regional tensions.

Krieg said that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have fought in Yemen for many years and knew they could not be stopped militarily.

The Houthis are hardy mountain fighters not unlike the Taliban; striking positions on land would play to their desire for publicity without stopping them from attacking ships.

“If we’re now starting to bomb Houthi positions it’s not going to have any effect,” he said.

“This thing will only stop if Israel stops.”

Attacks further out in the Arabian Sea could be a problem if the Houthis run out of targets in the Red Sea, Krieg added.

Nick Childs, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, wrote on Tuesday that the operation “appears to be a rebranding and slight bolstering of the Combined Maritime Forces’ Task Force 153”.

“The key questions remaining are who under the new framework will be willing to deploy ships cleared to intervene (and under what circumstances), and will this be enough to deter future attacks,” he said.

Childs added: “Given the tense state of affairs, an Iran-induced flare-up in the Middle East Gulf or Strait of Hormuz is surely also on the minds of naval planners.

“The US, which has put much effort into fostering a co-operative approach to regional maritime security, is now seeing this approach pushed to extremes with its limitations exposed.”

US and other countries faced an “exquisite dilemma” of trying to deter attacks without escalating conflict, Childs told Lloyd’s List.

“The political sensitivities, the calculations that are involved make it a difficult set of decisions for countries,” he said.

Navies were more stretched today than they were 10 years ago when nations formed the anti-piracy force, he added.

Maersk chief executive Vincent Clerc has welcomed the naval operation but said it would probably take weeks to make a difference.