SHIPPING professionals are citizens too, and many of them will be among the four billion people in more than 50 countries that will vote at some point in 2024.

Only rarely are we a constituency of sufficient magnitude to excite much interest from legislators. As a rule of thumb, governments either care about shipping enough to support it or else regard it with indifference.

In Greece, the position of the industry is constitutionally enshrined, which is one of the reasons why the nation is a shipping superpower.

In Britain, the first Labour government in 14 years is likely to show little more interest than the last administration, with neglect from the top one of the reasons we aren’t.

Then there are countries where both left and right hate shipping equally. France, where both Rassemblement National and the Noveau Front Populaire are promising to scrap the country’s tonnage tax, is a case in point.

There are more elections to come. Venezuela is supposed to choose a new government on Sunday, although there is some doubt as to whether the incumbents will take much notice of the outcome. Tanker calls will remain limited until PDVSA starts pumping again.

Meanwhile, the ongoing US presidential race has taken a particularly dramatic turn, with an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the withdrawal of Joe Biden from the contest, and the latter’s replacement with Kamala Harris. Both lean towards protectionism.

And last month also saw a vote for members of the European Parliament, a body that is rather less powerful than most that share the title.

Among its limited real powers is the right to rubber stamp the president of the European Commission, with 401 of its 707 members endorsing Ursula von der Leyen for a second term in the job.

Pulling together a coalition that stretches from socialists and liberals to the mainstream right, while additionally attracting the backing of most greens, is an impressive feat of political prestidigitation.

But bringing together a wide range of forces, united only in trepidation of alternative candidates from the populist right, will probably prove the easy bit.

No policy platform von der Leyen can conceivably devise could possibly win approbation from radical environmentalists, former communists, ardent Hayekian free marketeers and traditionalist conservatives, or at least not at the same time.

As it did in her first five years, von der Leyen’s agenda will centre on the environment. But she has yet to tell us how she intends to deliver the enormous capital resources required to create a decarbonised, high-tech society that can simultaneously protect its security and its economy.

A walk-on part

Shipping gets what is, relatively speaking, a walk-on part in the masterplan. Nevertheless, it is very much in our interests to make sure von der Leyen gets things right.

Under the European Green Deal rolled out in recent year, shipping was integrated into the EU Emissions Trading System. It now has to grapple with the stipulations of FuelEU, a kind of sliding scale pathway to net zero.

Some commentators predict that FuelEU will see a chaotic birth. Details guy lawyers who have studied the text describe it as very technical and even pernickety. It is not clear how shipping will meet the targets or even if the targets will be met at all.

On the other hand, some shipping executives view FuelEU as a necessary legislation to prompt more investment in dual-fuel optionality, as its pooling mechanism could provide additional revenue streams running up to millions of dollars for vessels running on alternative fuels, such as biofuels and green methanol.

While the goals of FuelEU are broadly supportable, excessive red tape does not help us reach them. Von der Leyen’s second term presidency would do well to listen to the feedback and consider how the mechanism can be simplified before it comes a cropper.

Moreover, as Lloyd’s List has argued many times over many years, purely regional frameworks do not work in what remains the world’s original globalised industry.

As a bare minimum, Brussels directives should never contradict climate protection regulations promulgated by the International Maritime Organization. Ideally, the requirements should harmonise. Again the KISS principle applies.

It is the essence of modern politics to insist that desirable thing X and desirable thing Y are not at all contradictory and voters can have both economic stimulus and net zero.

But maintaining growth and competitiveness demands a commitment to free trade in the face of rising protectionism. With both Trump and Harris demonstrably not adverse to tariffs, the balance will not be easy to maintain.

Trade war

A trade war with China looks a real possibility; the chances of real war are higher than any sensible person would like. And there are no signs of Putin suddenly deciding to opt for a life of quiet contemplation.

Ursula von der Leyen’s political background is in one Europe’s least ideological and most pragmatic parties, Germany’s Christian Democratic Union.

But there is evidence that she is well-disposed to free trade, not just in word, but in deed.

She has, for instance, supported a trade deal with Mercosur, which incredibly enough is not yet over the line after two decades of negotiations.

The sticking point appears be environmental issues. The EU wants to insert a sustainability annexe into what otherwise would be a done deal, and the grouping of South American emerging markets is not keen on the idea. That rather makes our point.

Von der Leyen fully understands that, left unchecked, protectionism threatens Europe’s leading trade role and weakens the competitiveness of the bloc’s economy. She needs to act accordingly.

Shipping thrives where it enjoys the support of lawmakers and struggles where it doesn’t. With the right policies, the EU can stay in the game.