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IN CHINA, shipyards that were distressed assets just years ago are now highly sought after. And if you happened to buy into some back then, congratulations; you likely stand to make a windfall profit.

Shanghai-headquartered DCL Investments made one such shrewd play more than two years ago. It invested in restructuring bankrupt Yangzhou Guoyu Shipbuilding at bargain prices, becoming the yard’s controlling shareholder in July 2024.

Now this facility, with more than 300 acres of land, 2 km of Yangtze river frontage, and four slipways able to produce up to 18 merchant ships annually, is generating positive cashflow by leasing to other shipbuilders. It could also bring DCL Investments a hefty return if snapped up by the next buyer.

Behind this story is the unfolding of the latest shipbuilding cycle: orderbooks swell, ship prices surge, yards’ profits rebound, and capacity expands.

But spectres of the past haunt: will rampant overordering end in yet another devastating crash? Those who lived through the order bubble prior to the 2008 financial crisis can’t help but worry about history repeating itself.

Sanguine voices, however, counter history won’t simply repeat. This cycle still has room to run, optimists say, fuelled by fleet renewal demand amid massive levels of aging tonnage and tightening emissions rules absent in the frenzied 2000s.

Meanwhile, the industry outlook is intertwined with various uncertainties. Can vessel earnings justify the rising ship prices? Can shipyards resolve labour shortages? Is the International Maritime Organization able to accomplish its green ambitions? And, will excess capacity expansion re-emerge in China, the world’s largest shipbuilding nation and, disrupt markets?

Discussing shipbuilding prospects on the podcast this week:

• Wang Linyu, managing director of DCL Investments
• John Cotzias, founder of Xclusiv
• Dimitris Roumeliotis, research analyst of Xclusiv
• Rob Willmington, Lloyd’s List markets editor