HOUTHI rebels in Yemen clearly have the capability to sink ships but appear to be holding back for political and media management reasons, an influential marine insurance figure has warned.

Lloyd’s Market Association head of marine Neil Roberts was speaking to journalists at the International Union of Marine Insurance conference in Berlin on September 15.

Roberts is also secretary to IUMI’s ocean hull committee and chair of its policy forum.

“We have a new reality in the Red Sea and it is ongoing. There is no apparent prospect of it changing,” he said.

“We must remember that the Houthis have evolved from an insurgency using roadside bombs to an organisation that is able to use ballistic missiles.

“It has 873,000 trained personnel. It is a significant operation. It has political aims, and the reason it is targeting shipping is unchanged. It wants recognition as a state.”

It is not obvious that its ambitions can be attained by the methods it is currently using.

Marine insurers are still able to support voyages going through the Red Sea, thanks to naval support for merchant shipping.

This naval support gives confidence to crews, owners and insurers alike. But the threat level remains unchanged.

Premium pricing will inevitably reflect risks and owners should ask themselves whether Red Sea transits still make economic sense and whether they are fair to the crew and the charterer.

Inevitably there will be economic consequences for the region as many owners continue to divert around the Cape of Good Hope.

Egypt has been hit by the loss of Suez Canal dues and Mediterranean ports are losing throughput, as Malta Freeport in Marsaxlokk admitted in a recent interview with Lloyd’s List.

Houthi targeting is imprecise and they often hit vessels that do not have any connection with the US, UK or Israel. In some ways, everybody is at risk.

But many are pointing to the costly efforts the United Nations required to tackle the threat of pollution from FSO Safer (IMO: 7376472), the ageing tanker that was at risk of breaking up while alongside at Hodeidah.

Despite that operation, the Houthis caused the risk of a major spill by setting fire to Delta Tankers’ suezmax Sounion (IMO: 9312145), which was carrying four times as much crude as Exxon Valdez.

“Was that very clever? One suspects they like the publicity. They are very good at media and they overinflate their claims. The Houthis claim a lot, they do less.”

Fortunately, total losses since the Houthi onslaught began last November have been relatively low.

But it is clear that the movement now has the capability to sink ships. It appears they have chosen not to exercise that capability, at least for now, for political reasons.

IUMI president Frédéric Denefle said that despite the conference marking the 150th anniversary of the inception of IUMI’s predecessor, the event is intended to be future-facing.

“We wish to focus on the fact that marine insurance can keep open all trade lines and shipping lines as much as possible,” he said.

“We know that geopolitical issues can stop this and this is why we have prepared clear messages and talks on those topics.”

Marine insurance markets are driven by international trade and are “not performing so badly”, he added, noting that there has been no major collapse.