A FRENETIC period of political lobbying opened in Brussels this week after European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen unveiled her opening team line-up set to oversee EU policy for the next five years.

While the final positions are far from confirmed, the announcement effectively fired the starting pistol on a race to secure promises and steer priorities that will include: a new maritime industrial strategy, the revision of both the FuelEU directive and emission trading rules for shipping, and initiatives that could rapidly scale manufacturing capacity for clean shipping fuels in Europe.

The appointment of a Greek conservative, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, as transport commissioner has been welcomed by European shipping leaders. While Tzitzikostas has no specific shipping experience, having someone who hails from Europe’s dominant maritime economy nominally in charge of maritime policy is widely seen as a positive for the industry. The fact that another Greek, Elissavet Vozemberg-Vrionidi, has been chairing the transport and tourism committee since July, also helps. 

As Transport Commissioner, Tzitzikostas will be tasked with developing a European Maritime Industrial Strategy that will be part of, but distinct from, the upcoming Clean Industrial Deal. That separation, ordered at the behest of von der Leyen herself, marks an opportunity for shipping to carve out a prominent position across multiple policies that span global supply chains and the competitiveness of the European economy, which is heavily reliant on trade.

It is also a window of opportunity for the European shipowners’ lobby, led by the European Community Shipowners’ Association, to secure a sizable wish list of policy demands. Ecsa wants 40% of clean fuel production for shipping to be based in Europe, along with 40% of European industrial capacity for innovative shipping technologies. It also wants a fit-for-purpose regulatory and taxation framework and the support to invest in new skills for the green and digital transition of shipping.

Such demands are to be expected as all sectors scramble for attention from their nominated representatives, but shipping’s prominent positioning in the recent recommendations submitted by Mario Draghi have significantly lifted expectations this year.

And while the headline target for lobbying will be Tzitzikostas, assuming he survives the next phase of the appointment process, the structure of the new commission means that shipping policy is heavily influenced by other commissioners who will also need to be on shipping’s radar.

Teresa Ribera, the new competition commissioner is arguably the second-most-powerful player in Brussels, after President von der Leyen.

Ribera has been instructed by the president to use Draghi’s report to forge “a new approach” to everything from innovation to developing regulation that sees more robust supply chains, as well as business models that are less dependent on the goodwill of other governments (read China defensive strategy).

Ribera, a noted climate activist in her native Spain, will also oversee the work of Wopke Hoekstra, the nominated Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth. His oversight of climate diplomacy and decarbonisation will see him hold significant sway over shipping policy, which over the next five years will include a revision of the EU’s emissions trading system tax that currently only has a mandate to 2030.

That will initially take the form of a framework legislation, but after that, the decisions around allowance of climate credits for each sector will require close scrutiny from shipping.

Shipping should also be keeping a close eye on the work of Maroš Šefčovič, who is slated to be Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, which also includes customs policy. He is the longest serving commissioner of the EU executive’s arm and, assuming he survives the nomination interviews, will be one of the most powerful. As the man tasked with dealing with growing protectionism in Washington and China’s assertive economic policy, he will also be drawing heavily on the recommendations from the Draghi report, which as Ecsa will presumably keep reminding him, recognises the global leadership of European shipping and the need to maintain its international competitiveness.

Inquisition 

However, before any of the new commissioners get to work and subject themselves to the long queue of demands piling up on their desk, they have to go before the European Parliament, where law makers will grill them on their experience and suitability.

Traditionally that ends up with at least one or two of the new class of commissioners being rejected, and in the past two Parliamentary hearings it has been the transport commissioner that got reshuffled before they got anywhere near starting.

Rumours this year suggest that the Hungarian nominee, Olivér Várhelyi (Health and Animal Welfare) and Malta’s Glenn Micallef (Intergenerational Fairness, Culture, Youth and Sport) will be subjected to the toughest grilling.

Regardless of the final line-up, this commission is more polarised than any in recent history, requiring the centre right, the centre left, the liberals, the greens to seek extra support from either the populist right, or left, or possibly the communists. Political balance in Europe is going to require extreme diplomacy and significant compromise to ensure progress.

The timing of all this will be determined by how quickly sufficient blocs can secure the required votes to get the process moving. President von der Leyen reportedly still hopes to have her new team set up by November 1. In practice, this will likely happen around December.

In the meantime, lobbying will go into overdrive in and around Brussels. Shipping will be jostling for position among every other sector seeking to influence the next five years of European industrial policy.