ASIAN shipping stocks fell on Wednesday as Donald Trump stood poised to win the US presidential election.

While freight market trends remain a key driver of the share prices, geopolitics is gaining influence as well, given its heavy impact on trade routes and tonne-mile demand.

US media projections show Republican candidate Trump will secure the 270 electoral votes needed for victory, although vote counting is still underway. Trump himself has also claimed he won the election.

Analysts previously warned his campaign policies, including sweeping tariffs designed to bring manufacturing back to the US and a swift end to the Russia-Ukraine war, could significantly shift shipping’s supply-demand balances if implemented.

The trade dislocations from Russia-related sanctions, which have largely benefitted the tanker sector, may dissipate with an end to the conflict. Meanwhile, a worldwide trade war would broadly threaten container shipping demand.

Shares of Cosco Shipping Holdings, which controls the world’s fourth largest and Asia’s largest containership fleet, closed down 2.4% in Shanghai and 3.5% in Hong Kong on November 6, halting gains made since November 1 on stabilising freight rates.

Its Hong Kong-listed subsidiary, Orient Overseas (International) Ltd, also lost over 3%.

Smaller Asian rivals Taipei-listed Wan Hai Lines and Seoul-listed HMM fell 1.2% and 4.3%, respectively. The share prices of the other two Taiwanese carriers, Evergreen and Yang Ming, remained almost flat.

Analysts previously predicted a Trump victory could initially boost fourth-quarter cargo volumes and rates, as shippers rush orders on tariff fears, but dampen longer-term demand through higher inflation.

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation, the oil and gas shipping unit of state conglomerate Cosco Shipping, fell 0.8% in Shanghai and 2.7% in Hong Kong.

Another state-owned giant, China Merchants Energy Shipping, which generates most of its revenue from its tanker and dry bulker fleet, saw its share price drop 0.9% in Shanghai.

The freight markets for both shipping sectors have been under pressure recently, particularly for very large crude carriers, where both Cosco and China Merchants own one of the world’s largest fleets. Rates have yet to show a significant rebound despite entering the traditional winter peak season.

And smaller crude tankers and product tankers will face bigger downside risks if conflict-driven tonne-mile gains evaporate.

Elsewhere, supramax and handysize specialist Pacific Basin lost 2.7% on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

In Japan, the top three diversified shipping groups — NYK Line, Mitsui OSK Lines and K Line — fell between 1.3% and 3.9%.

In a recent earnings report, Khalid Hashim, managing director of Bangkok-listed bulker operator Precious Shipping said most geopolitics-led disruptions have aided shipping so far, but anti-globalist election winners were concerning.

“Therefore it behoves us to follow the many elections that are taking place in the world during 2024, the most important of which is the US presidential elections,” he said.

“Many populist leaders are promoting de-globalisation, near-shoring, friend-shoring, and other market distorting policies. If such leaders get elected, they could have a significant negative impact on shipping demand.”

Shares in Precious Shipping fell 0.6% today.