Trump win positive for tanker markets, Braemar believes
Expanded oil exploration should boost output while prospect of more sanctioned vessels likely to tighten supply
Winter VLCC uplift delayed but not cancelled
DONALD Trump’s White House win is likely to prove a net positive for tanker markets, according to a UK-listed broker with three offices in the US.
The president elect’s commitment to a “drill, baby, drill” oil and gas exploration policy will boost output, while a likely increase in the number of sanctioned tankers should reduce vessel supply, Braemar believes.
Substantial tariffs on all imports, especially those from China, would have a detrimental impact on container shipping. But boxships make up only a small part of the firm’s diversified fixture list.
“As far as the export of oil and LNG out of the US goes, it’s going to be a positive, and Trump is behind that,” said chief executive James Gundy.
Chief operating officer Tris Simmonds argued the current lull in tanker rates, particularly marked in the VLCC segment, is nothing to worry about.
While tanker markets typically get an uptick in winter, sometimes starting as soon as October, this can happen either in Q4 or Q1 of the following year. The futures markets suggest that that prices will move eventually.
“When we say we’re into the winter, it can take until January. We take that into consideration.
“There are still some possibilities that can turn the market, although rates obviously aren’t at the numbers they have been.”
The comments come after the company announced its first half numbers this morning, which show healthy grown in pre-tax profits despite revenues essentially flatlining.
The performance leaves the firm on track to meet its stated objective of doubling 2021 underlying operating profit and is course to meet market expectation for next year it added.
Revenue for the period was up 1% year on year, or 3% on a US dollar basis to £76m ($97.7m). Average revenue per head of staff remains strong at £181,000.
Statutory pre-tax profit grew from £1.9m to £3.6m.
Net cash position came in at £3.3m as of August 31, from £3.1m at the same stage in 2023.
The increase in revenue was driven by Braemar’s investment and risk advisory work, which more than offset a weaker chartering segment.
Average commissions per fixture were up, which offset lower fixture numbers overall, reflecting increased voyage times due to events in international politics.
Market conditions remain healthy and the forward order book continues to be strong, at $85.8m as of September 30.
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