Suez Canal struggles with transits while Bab el Mandeb makes minor monthly gains
Egypt has lost an estimated $6bn in Suez Canal revenues due to Red Sea rerouting
Minor positive swings in October traffic volumes fails to disguise how traffic through both chokepoints is slowly decreasing over time
TRANSITS through the Suez Canal are at their lowest capacity since the start of the Red Sea crisis, highlighting the increasingly detrimental impact of Houthi attacks on Egypt’s economy.
Some 877 cargo-carrying vessels passed through Suez Canal in October, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data.
It is a negligible increase from the 868 recorded the month prior, but measuring the transits by the sum of cumulative dwt reveals a 4% drop in traffic month on month to 65.5m dwt.
This is a new low in passings by capacity, surpassing the 67.5m dwt recorded in June.
Egypt’s foreign minister said the country’s economy has suffered “substantial losses” because of the Houthi campaign of aggression in the Red Sea, losing an estimated $6bn in revenues generated from the Suez Canal.
Yet, Egypt has been reluctant to openly criticise the Houthis or exert diplomatic influence to reign in attacks.
“There are a lot of geopolitical reasons why the Egyptian government is somewhat stuck,” explains Ian Ralby, chief executive of consultancy IR Consilium.
“Most notably, because we have let the Houthis hold the false narrative that what they are doing is protesting Israel, then Egypt acting against the Houthis could be seen as doing something to support Israel.”
October was a more positive month for Bab el Mandeb transits which were up 8%, increasing to 948 from 876.
Transits measured by capacity grew just 3% to 62.5m tonnes though, making it the second-lowest monthly figure recorded since November 2023.
The differing growth rates is reflective of how smaller vessels are being deployed to the Red Sea.
Neither the transit data for the Suez Canal nor the Bab el Mandeb suggests any significant positive or negative change to Red Sea traffic.
The reason for this, explains Risk Intelligence senior analyst Dirk Siebels, is that there has not been and any substantial shift in the situation on the ground.
“The security situation has not changed over the past few months, ship operators have no reason to return to Red Sea transits,” said Siebels.
“On the other side, the situation is also virtually stable for those companies that are still transiting through the Bab el Mandeb with their ships so they have no reason to suddenly reroute around Africa or simply stop the regional trade which could not be rerouted anyway.”
Analysis of the transits between August and October compared to May to July indicates Red Sea traffic is very slowly decreasing in terms of sheer volume and total capacity.
