THE boo-hoorah theory posited by the philosopher AJ Ayer essentially claimed that ethical language expresses feelings and attitudes instead of having a truth value. Moral statements like “is wrong” or “is right” can be reduced to “Boo!” or “Hoorah!”.

Listening to the hot take assessments on Trump’s re-election from economists, politicians and CEOs today, it seems that in the absence of any predictable facts about what happens next, we are very much in boo-hoorah territory.

The economists have been warning everyone to adopt the brace position in anticipation of lower growth, higher inflation and non-specific turmoil.

The CEOs who had the misfortune of talking up their shops in earnings calls just 24 hours after one of the most significant political shifts in recent history, could not afford such public negativity.

Inevitably they all have a playbook on the shelf ready to go, although what that playbook contains given the overwhelming lack of policy certainties from Trump 2.0 can likely be considered a largely emotional response for now.

Scenario planning is of course basic risk management, but shipping is already juggling many ‘what ifs’ in its strategic outlook.

While there is understandably some positive emotional responses from some quarters of shipping, notably tankers, gleefully anticipating a Trump bump — trepidation is the more common emotional response on display for the moment.

Marine insurers have understandably not topped the vox pop reactions ubiquitous in the mainstream press, but their fears are no less valid.

Having already complained that the contradictory requirements of the current oil price cap policy that seeks to simultaneously sustain and punish Russian oil flows are increasingly unenforceable, they now face a further compliance conundrum.

If Trump decides to go his own way on sanctions policy, the insurance sector is going to be left in an impossible situation when it comes to compliance. Diverging strategies on security from the West could be more immediately significant than the tariff headline fears.

Of course, right now, that remains a hypothetical response to an as yet undetermined problem, but emotionally it does not feel great.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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