PRESIDENT-ELECT Donald Trump is expected to resume his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran when he returns to office in January, but attempts to choke the country's oil exports would be complicated by sophisticated networks and a dark fleet* adept at skirting US prohibitions, wrote senior maritime reporter Tomer Raanan.

Iran’s exports of crude oil and condensates plummeted in 2019 after Trump reinstated sanctions during his previous tenure, but have since been gradually increasing, although they remain below pre-sanctions levels.

According to data from tanker trackers at US advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, Tehran is exporting about 1.6m barrels per day of crude and condensate so far this year, compared with about 660,000 bpd during the first 12 months, after sanctions waivers expired in the spring of 2019. In comparison, Iran exported about 2.5m bpd of crude and condensates in 2017, data from commodities and analytics provider Vortexa showed.

Port strike threat and tariff fears are already boosting US imports

US containerised imports remained very strong in October, and volumes in November and December will be boosted by cargo frontloading, the National Retail Federation said on Friday.

Global Port Tracker, published by the NRF and Hackett Associates, estimated that the terminals it covers handled 2.13m teu of imports in October, up 4% year on year, wrote senior maritime reporter Greg Miller.

Global Port Tracker has just upgraded its import forecast for 4Q24 by 360,000 teu or 6%. This increased its full-year forecast to 25.3m teu, 4% higher than full-year 2023.

Last steam turbine boxship sold for scrap in ‘bleak’ recycling market

Shipbrokers reported the sale of five elderly cargo vessels in the past week including what it is understood to be the last steam turbine-powered containership in existence, reported markets editor Robert Willmington.

The 1980-built boxship Horizon Enterprise (IMO: 7617905) is reported by Xclusiv Shipbrokers to have been sold on “as is” basis with handover at the port of San Diego for $316 per light displacement tonne.

According to data tracked by Lloyd’s List, some 53 containerships have been sold for scrap since January with a combined capacity of 83,000 teu.

Ship recycling cash buyer GMS reports that ship recycling prices fell across the board in the past two weeks. It notes that prices have dropped towards the mid-$400s per ldt. This is the lowest price level seen since the first quarter of 2021.

“It is clear that the markets have now lost well over $100 per ldt on levels since the peaks seen over the year, where a containership was sold above the highly coveted $600 per ldt mark into Bangladesh,” said GMS.

Fake AIS trails and forged Iraqi documents underpin Iranian gas exports to Bangladesh

Iraq’s Khor al Zubair port has become a focal point for ships manipulating their Automatic Identification System signals to obfuscate loadings of LPG in Iran, reported Tomer Raanan.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence analysis of AIS data and satellite imagery shows that small gas carriers are routinely “calling” in the port’s LPG export terminals to create a seemingly plausible voyage history that obfuscates the origin of their cargoes.