THE reconfiguration of international shipping lanes borne out of the situation in the Red Sea has inadvertently led to a surge in traffic east of the coast of Somalia, an area that has seen a resurgence in piracy activity over the past year, reported maritime risk analyst Bridget Diakun.

Eunavfor Atalanta, an EU maritime security operation, said in a webinar hosted by BIMCO that the increase in active ships throughout the Somali basin and surrounding area has created more possibilities for piracy attacks.

Vessel-tracking data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence shows the number of ships sailing the international shipping lane east of the former high-threat area (2021 iteration) has doubled year on year as ships have rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Red Sea.

The monthly average number of transits of cargo-carrying vessels from January to October 2023 was 305. During the same period in 2024 this figure is 624.

How new Trump tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada could impact shipping

US President-elect Donald Trump has touted tariffs on Chinese goods of 60%-100% during his presidential campaign, wrote senior maritime reporter Greg Miller.

Monday’s announcement was characterised in analyst reports as an “opening salvo”, with more to come. Deutsche Bank head of global economics Jim Reid expects the initial 10% increase in 1H25 to be followed by a further 10% increase in 2H25.

The election of tariff-loving Trump has been a negative for ocean shipping stocks. Shares fell after the election and sank further following the latest tariff announcement.

Tariffs and trade wars are considered negative for ocean shipping due to demand destruction, although there are nuances. Tariffs can accelerate timing of cargo shipments, particularly in the case of containerised goods, and can also alter trade routes, increasing tonne-mile demand for certain vessel segments.

A fifth of dark fleet tankers now under Western sanctions

More than a fifth of dark fleet* tankers are now under Western sanctions, with a rising number of these ships falsely flying flags of prior registries or flying flags of fraudulent registries, reported principal analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann.

Of the 667 elderly and anonymously owned tankers tracked in Venezuelan, Iranian or Russian oil trades, 131 are subject to Western sanctions, Lloyd’s List analysis shows.

Most of these sanctions have been imposed this year as EU and UK regulators join the US to ratchet up enforcement and compliance in shipping amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.

Of the 131 tankers in the dark fleet subject to sanctions, 52 are falsely flagged.

US grain exports on the up, but big picture looks gloomier

Grain exports from the US are up 20% so far for the 2024/2025 grain marketing year versus the corresponding period last year, wrote reporter Joshua Minchin.

Data from the US Department of Agriculture shows 36.6m tonnes already shipped from US ports in the 2024/25 grain marketing year, (which starts either in June or September depending on the grain) compared to 27.8m tonnes at the same point in the previous season.

But the bigger picture for US grain is somewhat gloomier. In reality, the country is being left behind in the race to be China’s main grain trade partner, losing further ground to Brazil.

Chinese commitments for US soyabeans (by far the largest crop by trade volume to China) are down 8%, commitments for US wheat are down 83% and US corn 97%.

* Lloyd’s List defines a tanker as part of the dark fleet if it is aged 15 years or over, anonymously owned and/or has a corporate structure designed to obfuscate beneficial ownership discovery, solely deployed in sanctioned oil trades, and engaged in one or more of the deceptive shipping practices outlined in US State Department guidance issued in May 2020. The figures exclude tankers tracked to government-controlled shipping entities such as Russia’s Sovcomflot, or Iran’s National Iranian Tanker Co, and those already sanctioned.

Download our explainer on the different risk profiles of the dark fleet here 

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