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Shipping should return to the Red Sea, argues EU naval commander

Shipping’s electronic footprint is its Achilles’ heel, says Rear Admiral Vasileios Gryparis, commander of EU Naval Forces Operation Aspides

Operation Aspides, the European Union’s naval mission to protect Red Sea vessels from Houthi attacks is under-resourced and fighting a PR battle, but the Rear Admiral overseeing the unprecedented mission says that, with the right risk management, at least 15% of ships could return safely to the Red Sea immediately

AT LEAST 15% of ships currently rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope could safely return to the Red Sea with minimal risk, according to the EU’s naval commander charged with protecting shipping from Houthi attacks.

While Rear Admiral Vasileios Gryparis, Commander of EU Naval Forces Operation Aspides, concedes that the three naval vessels under his command are insufficient to provide protection to all ships, he says that basic risk management measures from some shipowners would be sufficient to avoid being attacked.

“We can’t protect everybody; we only have three ships,” Gryparis said, speaking to Lloyd’s List in London ahead of meetings with industry leaders and the International Maritime Organization.

“But the CEOs of shipping companies should be making their own risk analysis before deciding to continue diverting all their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, because there are many vessels that are not actually included in the threat list. For those who don’t have connections with the Americans, with the UK or Israel, there is a huge number of vessels that could pass unharmed,” Gryparis said. “I believe another 15% could easily return right now very safely,”

Gryparis recommended a combination of turning off Automatic Identification Systems and transiting at night when Houthi visual targeting was impaired.

Operation Aspides was launched in February when Gryparis was given just four days to draft the operational strategy for an unprecedented EU naval operation that has struggled from day one to get the required support from governments. 

His original assessment stated that he would need a minimum of 10 naval ships, six of which would need to be based in the Red Sea, alongside extensive air support. 

Nine months in Aspides has never exceeded an average of three naval vessels with no air support available. 

Of the current fleet of three supplied by Italy, France and Greece, the Greek frigate is over 25 years old, with limited and ageing technology on board. The operational zone that Aspides is supposed to cover entails the entire Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East Gulf and also a huge part of the Northwest Indian Ocean.

“I’m not a magician,” said Gryparis. “Give me the tools, and I will provide you with the results, but what we have achieved with what we have is quite remarkable.”

Close protection is limited

Aspides has provided 305 close protection transits since inception and “facilitated” at least another 480 vessels. But the close protection offer is limited and can only go to the highest risk vessels, and even then they are averaging just one transit a day through the danger zone. 

The decisions about which ships to offer close protection to is a daily risk assessment that has to factor in cost as much potential attacks.

“Some of these missiles costs millions. We have to think about that and how many we fire and if we do, where and how do we replace them. You can’t just go to the supermarket to get this stuff and the funding lies directly with the countries providing the vessels.”

Of the vessels that have been offered close protection services, 75% of the vessels were affiliated with EU states via ownership, but many of them had non-EU flag states.

While Gryparis’ role is operationally strategic, he finds himself on a constant tour to raise awareness of what Aspides is doing in order to get the political support he needs to keep operations effective.

That process is not just a European political hurdle. While Aspides ostensibly operates in the same theatre as other Western naval operations, the EU naval mandate is purely defensive and aimed at de-escalation.

Distinguishing between Aspides and US and UK-led offensive attacks that have conducted multiple strikes targeting Houthi facilities over the past year has caused trust issues in regional states, Gryparis concedes, but he says there is now at least an understanding that Aspides is there to defend and to help.

He is also seeking potential buy in from non EU actors and recently met with the Indian navy to gauge support for them to join as a partner.

“My message to the industry is that they should go back to their home countries and increase the pressure to push for more participation from Aspides,” Gryparis said.

In the meantime, the most effective risk mitigation lays in understanding the Houthi threat, he argues.

“Fear is the Houthi’s most effective weapon,” he said, noting that the accuracy of Houthi attacks was less than 7%.

Basic risk mitigation measures could dramatically reduce the chances of a ship getting hit, he argued.

According to Gryparis, the shipping industry is still too visible to Houthi targeting and the abundance of free, and often inaccurate, data regarding ship ownership was one area the industry needed to focus on.

“This is the Achilles heel of the Western civilization, because all these companies leave a very noticeable electronic footprint and the Houthis have everything they need for free,”  Gryparis said.

When it comes to physical tracking of ships, the Aspides advice remains that ships should be turning off their AIS at least 70 hours before entering high risk areas, while also changing course and speed regularly.

Houthi targeting and weapons systems have improved significantly over the past year, according to Aspides. However, much of the precise targeting required for the remotely operated unmanned attack vessels and drones, still rely on fishing vessel spotters and a line of sight from their remote operators. Night time operations for such attacks are very difficult without night vision cameras, which the Houthis do not currently possess, according Aspides intelligence.

While Gryparis insists that the results speak for themselves (no ships with AIS turned off have successfully been targeted, according to EU Navfor), the majority of ships transiting the key danger areas continue to sail with their AIS on. If anything, AIS is being used more. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data, 5% of total transits happened with AIS offline in October, compared to 7% in April.

Advice to industry regarding enablement of AIS also varies.

The US Maritime Administration and Joint Maritime Information Centre have said that transmitting AIS in the Houthi threat area, or in the vicinity of it, puts vessels at greater risk as it aids the Houthis in targeting ships.

Others argue that it is possible for the Houthis to target ships not broadcasting AIS, and importantly those that do disable their systems would be harder to locate if there was an incident.

The master ultimately makes the decision to transit the Bab el Mandeb and Red Sea with AIS on or off.

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