Shipping will miss 2030 IMO emissions target, but that doesn’t matter
But there is more optimism that 2040 and 2050 emissions targets will be met
The Lloyd’s List Outlook Poll shows the majority of respondents think shipping will miss the IMO’s 2030 target to reduce emissions by 20% based on 2008 levels, but does that matter?
JUST under 60% of respondents to a Lloyd’s List poll think shipping will not meet the International Maritime Organization’s target to reduce emissions by 20%, striving for 30%, based on 2008 levels by 2030.
That result was revealed at the Lloyd’s List Outlook forum, which took place at Trinity House, London, on December 5.
In a live poll of the audience in the room, some 84% thought shipping would miss the 2030 target.
But Michael Parker, Citi’s logistics and offshore chairman and chair of the Poseidon Principles, said it probably doesn’t matter if the industry misses that 2030 target. What was more important, he said, was the IMO regulation anticipated to finally arrive next year.
If the IMO does agree regulation at the Marine Environment Protection Committee meetings next year, Parker said, then shipping would all of a sudden be of interest to governments and bodies outside of the industry.
He said there would be “democratic consequences” for governments that didn’t deal with climate change in the future, and shipping (if the IMO does agree regulation) would be an industry “actually dealing with it and is relevant to everyone”.
Parker said of more interest would be where the money raised by potential carbon levies would be invested. Increased interest from outside shipping, combined with those resources raised, made Parker “optimistic” about the IMO’s future targets.
His optimism was shared by respondents to the Lloyd’s List Outlook poll too. Just over half thought shipping would meet the IMO’s 2040 target to reduce emissions by 70% (striving for 80%), and 62% said shipping would meet the IMO’s target to be net-zero close to 2050.
Lloyd’s Register chief executive Nick Brown said it would be shore side investment and decision-making that would prevent shipping from hitting those targets.
“I think the industry is ready, the shipyards are ready,” he told the Lloyd’s List Outlook Forum.
“Will we have the molecules in sufficient quantities, in sufficient time? That depends entirely on regulation,” Brown said, highlighting that regulation meant input from other sectors such as finance, not just decisions made at the IMO.
Shell head of shipping and maritime Karrie Trauth said hitting the 2030 target was “feasible”, but future targets would require greater clarity from shipping’s regulators.
But again, she was far more optimistic about those future targets. “If we make 2040, we’ll make 2050,” Trauth said.
But as Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief and moderator Richard Meade said regarding the 2030 target, by 2024 most of the practical decision making has already been done, which is perhaps why so many think that goal is now unachievable.
The mood among the panel assembled was clear: What happens in London next year is critical, lest the same responses be offered to this question in 2034 and even 2044.
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