SHIPPING is cursed with more than enough dull conferences, thank you. The platforms are overwhelmingly made up of white men of a certain age, with the speakers rarely invigorating, and sometimes frankly soporific.

But one talking shop that always merits the time of hard-pressed industry executives is the Lloyd’s List Outlook Forum, an annual early December fixture held in London.

Mandy Rice-Davies Applies, of course: well we would say that, wouldn’t we? But most of the 120 or so attendees at this year’s iteration at Trinity House on Thursday will hopefully find themselves in agreement.

The Outlook Forum likes to unpack the big challenges facing the industry, as informed by polling, including that of the invitees on the day.

Some 47% of those in the audience told us that geopolitical risk poses the greatest risk to shipping businesses over the next two years.

With hostilities raging in Ukraine and Gaza, the re-election of the perennially unpredictable Donald Trump as president of the US, and tension growing across both the Taiwan Strait and the Korean peninsula, that shouldn’t come as a shock.

The obvious conclusion is to be prepared. As the old aphorism has it, just because you are not interested in politics doesn’t mean that politics is not interested in you.

Additionally, just 21% of respondents believe that the Red Sea will reopen next year. A higher proportion, namely 27%, do not expect it to be reopened until 2028 or later.

But Trafigura’s head of shipping Andrea Olivi is among the optimists, believing that the Comeback Kid at the White House has the capacity to knock heads together in the Middle East.

Some 84% of the audience were convinced that shipping will miss the International Maritime Organization target to slice 20% off shipping greenhouse gas emissions by the start of the next decade.

As the hottest year on record draws to a close, that attitude may seem to those involved in the fight against climate change at best a little too easy-going, at worst downright complacent.

But Michael Parker, chair of logistics and offshore at Citi and a bit of a closet greenie himself as chair of the Poseidon Principles, argued that it probably doesn’t matter all that much.

What is more important is the 2025 negotiations at the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee, which is charged with drawing up regulations on the matter.

This is bound to bring shipping to the attention of governments — which is not somewhere it habitually likes to be — not least as a source of revenue in the form of carbon levies.

Shell’s head of shipping Karrie Trauth demurred. She thinks the 2030 target is still feasible, even if greater clarity is needed.

Lloyd’s Register chief executive Nick Brown feared that lack of shoreside investment and decision-making that lacks concision will hold shipping back from meeting its climate goals.

The second session on security risks and sanctions heard some strong words from Michelle Linderman, a partner with law firm Van Bael & Ellis.

While sanctions stop people in the West doing things — and that is by design — those involved in the dark fleet do not pay them any heed. The bad guys are going to continue doing bad things, she warned.

Adding to the problem, many of the civil servants drafting sanctions regulations don’t have much idea how shipping or marine insurance works. There are inevitably unintended consequences when the rules are not properly thought through.

There is little point in asking sanctioning entities for guidance in emergency situations, as replies sometimes take weeks or even months to arrive, when rulings are needed immediately.

Daniel Martin, a partner at law firm HFW, said sanctions risked splitting shipping into two bodies of trade.

This creates an opportunity for people in jurisdictions not bound to comply, while making life harder for everybody else.

The conclusion from the deliberations is that shipping people are worried about many of the same things many human beings are typically worried about, from wars and rumours of wars to climate change and sanctions.

In none of these instances can we offer a solution by ourselves. But at least we can do our best to be part of the solution.

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