SHIPPING companies were warned to exercise caution and seafarers were told to avoid Syria altogether as Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s dictator for 24 years, reportedly touched down in Moscow after rebels seized control of Damascus, the Syrian capital.

The immediate implications for shipping, however, were reverberating largely throughout the Iranian dark fleet, which has supplied the majority of Syria’s energy imports over recent years.

Initial attention was focused on the Iranian suezmax tanker Lotus (IMO: 9203784) that made a U-turn in the Gulf of Suez on Sunday as the full extent of the rebel victory in Syria, led by the Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, became clear.

According to TankerTrackers, Lotus was due to deliver about 750,000 barrels of Iranian crude to Syria, but the change of direction immediately called into question what happens next.

The immediate options for Lotus are limited with the cargo heading back to Iran on Monday. The crude could be returned to onshore tanks, or Lotus could be used as floating storage off Iran. While it is possible the suezmax would head east for a ship-to-ship transfer, weak Chinese demand suggests that is the least likely immediate option.

But the implications of Lotus’ U-turn are much wider than this single cargo. 

“The political landscape suggests this new regime is more aligned with Western countries, which could mean less of a reliance on imports from Iran, which has been its sole crude supplier in recent years,” explained Vortexa senior oil risk analyst Armen Azizian.

Syria’s crude imports from Iran, which supplied its Banias refinery, stood at the around 90,000 barrels per day mark in 2023 and fell to about 60,000-70,000 barrels per day in 2024, according to Vortexa data.

“If these barrels are now pushed away from Syria, we could see Iran’s crude exports decline by between 60,000-70,000 barrels per day as they don’t have another outlet for these barrels other than China, which is already reducing purchases of Iranian crude,” said Azizian.

If the trade between Iran and Syria subsides, some of those tankers could be left unemployed suggesting Iran’s floating storage could rise, at least in the short term.

Much of Syria’s seaborne trade is conducted by ships with AIS turned off, making precise import figures unreliable.

Syria has two refineries, Homs with a capacity of 107,100 barrels per day and Banias, at 120,000 barrels per day. The majority of that import demand is met by Iran.

Formerly the eastern Mediterranean's leading oil and natural gas producer, Syria itself used to produce over 380,000 barrels per day of oil and 300m cu ft of natural gas before the civil war that began in the spring of 2011. Since then, Syria has seen its production fall to a fraction of pre-conflict levels and the country is no longer able to export oil.

While the case of Lotus has been carefully watched by analysts to see if it is indicative of a wider reluctance to sail into Syria, most agree that it is too early to tell what happens next.

The immediate concern is that a reversal of Iranian imports could imply a severe fuel shortage for a country in turmoil.

Mainstream shipping meanwhile remains largely unaffected by the political shifts for the moment.

“With the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria shipping companies are likely to exercise caution in coming days,” said BIMCO head of maritime security Jakob Larsen.

India’s directorate general of shipping adopted a similarly cautious tone on Sunday, issuing an advisory “strongly recommending that Indian nationals avoid all travel to Syria, until further notification”. 

“In light of the current situations prevailing, seafarers are advised not to sign on or off from any ports in Syria,” the advisory continued.

Power takeover

What that means for the wider maritime sector, however, remains to be seen and the question of how Hayat Tahrir al-Sham will manage the taking over of power, including key infrastructure such as ports, is not yet clear.

“My best guess is HTS will aim for a continuation of operations to help stabilise the domestic security situation,” Larsen said. “However, security risks remain elevated until we have more clarity about how the situation develops.”

In the longer run, the big unknown is how HTS will position themselves vis-à-vis the international community.

Both Russia and the US have troops deployed in Syria, and the US, Israel and Türkiye have conducted attacks against their enemies within Syrian territory.

Judging from HTS’s actions in recent years, indications are that they are focussed mainly on consolidating their power base internally in Syria and are less concerned with higher and more abstract endeavours for example of religious nature.

This could indicate a pragmatic approach in international relations, where focus will be on stability and reliability.

Against this backdrop, one key issue will be how the international community will approach HTS, which has so far been designated by the US as a terrorist organisation. Maintaining this designation seems to be a likely outcome, but that could potentially play into the hands of Russia.

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