SOME of the big factors shaping shipping next year are pretty obvious, even if the outcome isn’t.

Carbon regulation will define the next few decades, and Donald Trump is likely to dominate the next four years.

We know trade policy uncertainty jumped to record highs under Trump’s first presidency, but it is set to surge much higher this quarter and over his second term. And we don’t even have to forecast as far ahead as 2025 — it seems pretty clear that uncertainty about tariffs is already affecting businesses’ investment decisions.

But away from these big swing factors and the dominant uncertainties that fall under the dangerous but nebulous catch-all title of “geopolitical risk” these days, there are some shipping specific factors to consider for next year.

The crystal ball powering our annual Outlook is just as cloudy as everyone else’s, but we are reasonably certain that the outbreak of fuel pragmatism that has seen a shift back towards conventional fuel and LNG this year is set to continue into 2025. Partly that’s a technology push back; the ammonia engines are coming, but testing is taking longer than initial expectations and nobody is about to start cutting corners on a dangerous fuel that is too expensive to run any time soon.

We think there’s a reasonable chance asset prices will come down, but if newbuilding prices do drop, it is likely to be a slow process.

We think 2025 is the year that digital discussions start producing results, but probably not in the way that many had initially assumed. Think time-saving efficiency and get yourself acquainted with Agentic AI and ERP (that’s enterprise resource planning to the luddites out there not up on your IT acronyms).

We also think Africa’s voice is about to get louder in shipping discussions next year and heartily suggest you focus some attention on the hot and windy coastline of Namibia, where green hydrogen is more advanced than you think.

But beyond all this, we would also suggest that some basic truths over shipping cycles are worth remembering as we head into 2025.

Success in shipping is about successfully navigating the unexpected and making sure you maximise profits when the times are good to ride out the down cycles. Discipline is key and it’s not always evident who has played the best hand until the bad time hit.

Generally, we would be going into the new year with a pretty certain idea of how the markets will play out, but after five years of unforeseen supply shocks, nobody is expecting anything beyond the unexpected.

We may not get every one of our Outlook predictions spot on, but we would suggest that reading this year’s Outlook report is a good place to start prepping for what promises to be another ‘interesting’ year.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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