WHEN IT comes to “What if…” scenarios, shipping has rarely needed much of an imagination. If something bad could happen, it invariably has done at one point or another. It’s not that surprises didn’t crop up, but as Mark Twain almost explained, shipping risks don’t always repeat, but they usually rhyme.

Second guessing risk, however, has become much more complex of late as owners weigh up their perceived position on the geopolitical chess board.

Take Mike Lewis for example. The chief executive of German energy importer Uniper is understandably nervous about whether Moscow will be encouraging allies to seize any of its gas tankers.

Uniper was previously the EU’s biggest buyer of gas from Russia before 2022 and ever since a Russian court last year saw fit to hit Mr Lewis’ firm, alongside several others, with a “politically motivated” €14bn penalty, he has understandably been a little nervous about where his ships are calling.

Of course, ordinarily, the suggestion that a third country could be coopted into political seizures would be absurd, but we live in unpredictable times and as the old saying goes just because you are paranoid doesn’t mean they aren’t out to get you.

And don’t go thinking that this is a uniquely European fear of risks yet to manifest themselves.

In China this week at the ostensibly public celebration of a ship launch, all efforts were being made to hush up the ownership structure of the vessel about to enter international trading. The assumed fear in this instance being US scrutiny, in the form of tariffs, sanctions or some as yet undefined whim of the incoming Trump presidency.

Mistrust and suspicion is running hot right now in shipping and risk mitigation is about covering off previously unthinkable scenarios.

The fact that the US Department of Defence has designated the world’s largest shipowner, Cosco, as a Chinese military company, may not be a direct sanction, but the implications of what this might lead to don’t require too much imagination.

The fact that this was followed almost immediately with a push by ports in China’s Shandong province to reject US sanctioned ships, suggests that the calculations around the what if scenarios are responding swiftly.

All eyes are now on Shandong’s ports and Cosco’s ships to see what happens next.

Should Cosco’s ships be shunned, as they were briefly in 2019 when the US formally sanctioned Cosco for several months, tanker rates would likely see a significant boost. Equally, a genuine push from Chinese ports to reject US sanctioned ships could have a significant impact on flows, likely forcing some volumes back into mainstream tankers and away from the dark fleet.

There’s a lot of caveats in both scenarios right now. And let’s not forget that, two weeks away from Donald Trump returning to the White House, we are entering a period of seismic political change where anything could yet and likely will happen.

It seems that it might be time to start thinking the unthinkable when it comes to those what if scenarios. 

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

Click here to view the latest Lloyd’s List Daily Briefing