No imminent return to Red Sea for shipping despite Gaza ceasefire
Houthi militants signal that attacks may continue despite a ceasefire deal
A ceasefire deal in Gaza has not altered the current threat assessment for shipping in the Red Sea and shipping lines will not be prepared to disrupt global supply chains by re-routing until there is hard evidence the Houthi threat has diminished
THE Gaza ceasefire announced on Wednesday night has not altered the threat assessment for shipping in the Red Sea and will not spark an imminent return to Bab el Mandeb transits.
That was the view from senior naval officials and shipping executives on Thursday, as the industry weighed a tentative end to the war in Gaza against the continued threat to shipping posed by Houthi militants.
Shipping stocks in Asia and Europe fell slightly on Thursday on expectations that a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas would normalise shipping in the Red Sea, cooling elevated container freight rates and weighing on profits. However that immediate investor response is premature, according to shipowners.
Maersk, along with most other major container lines, have said it will only return to the Red Sea when it is safe to do so and an initial assessment of the ceasefire deal has done little to alter their current plans.
“It is still too early to speculate about timing,” a Maersk spokesperson confirmed.
Frontline chief executive Lars Barstad was similarly cautious about the prospect of any imminent re-routing, suggesting that it would be “a bit naive” to expect owners to put their seafarers at risk any time soon.
While shipping lines are said to be closely monitoring developments, any return to the Red Sea would trigger a phased series of re-routings that would likely take several weeks to prepare and another 1-2 months before normal schedules were operational.
An industry-wide return to the Red Sea would spark weeks of port congestion and disruption to global supply chains.