The week in charts: Houthis still call the shots in the Red Sea | Container rates in full retreat | Australia reclaims share of record Chinese coal imports
Lloyd’s List’s weekly showing of the data and figures behind our news, analysis and markets coverage
The shipping industry is waiting for a signal from the Houthis before returning to the Red Sea, container spot rates are falling across the board and Australian coal exports to China were up 32% on 2023
THE ceasefire deal in Gaza is a welcome first step towards shipping’s return to the Red Sea, but the real power to reopen the Bab el Mandeb to all traffic still sits with the Houthis, reported maritime risk analyst Bridget Diakun.
For more than a year the Iran-backed militant group has effectively been defying international naval operations established to uphold the freedom of navigation, and dictating who can sail the international shipping lane connecting the Mediterranean to the Arabian Sea.
The security of future transits and the timing of commercial decisions to reroute will not be determined by Israel, Hamas or any Western government. It is entirely reliant on the Houthis’ willingness to step down their offensive and they will not be giving up their newfound political power easily.
According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data, traffic through the Bab el Mandeb has been relatively stable for about nine months with transit volumes consistently down 60% on normal levels.
Container rates in full retreat; stock sentiment hit by ceasefire
The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index dropped another 7% in the week ending on Friday. The Asia-US west coast lane led the declines among the key east-west trades, wrote senior reporter Greg Miller.
Spot container rates are following their normal seasonal downward pattern around Chinese New Year, which comes earlier in 2025, on January 29. The question ahead is: will spot rates rise again during the spring and summer, as usual, or is this the start of the long-feared downcycle?
The Israel-Hamas ceasefire is a negative for container spot rates. Should the ceasefire hold, the Houthis halt attacks in the Bab el Mandeb strait, and container lines return to the Suez route, overcapacity would ensue.
An additional 2m teu of newbuilding capacity is due to hit the water this year, on top of the nearly 3m teu delivered in 2024, according to Alphaliner. Red Sea diversions saved liners from overcapacity last year, but there’s a limit to how much capacity the route diversions can absorb even if the Red Sea remains closed.
The mere threat of the Red Sea reopening has spooked container investors, adding to negative sentiment from seasonally ebbing spot rates and the end to the US port strike threat. Shares of Zim are down over 30% year to date.
Australia reclaims share of record Chinese coal imports
China’s coal appetite has certainly recovered from the 2022 low of 293.32m tonnes, and so has capesize market share from Australia, wrote reporter Joshua Minchin.
Australian exports to China were decimated following the informal ban imposed in 2020 following political tension between the two.
The ban was lifted in 2023, and coal exports to China have begun to recover, though still not at the levels seen pre-ban.
Tanker freight future trading hits record as market spikes on Russia shipping sanctions
Volumes of tanker freight futures traded soared to a record on Friday, January 10, as the US imposed its largest sanctions ever on Russia’s oil and shipping sector, reported principal analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann.
Volumes traded reached 13,341 lots, data from the Baltic Exchange shows.
One lot is equivalent to 1,000 tonnes of freight or one day’s time charter equivalent.
The volumes traded surpassed the record 12,684 lots traded on November 29, 2022, the day when the G7 price cap on Russia was officially released.