Tanker and bulker fleets look older a year on, says Xclusiv
Number of elderly vessels in several segments dwarf newbuildings in the pipeline, Greek broker highlights
Trump administration’s action against Chinese builders, if it comes, is ‘problematic’ in view of industry’s need for yard capacity
AFTER another 12 months of limited scrapping, even the passing of a single year has “significantly” altered the age picture of the existing tanker and dry bulk fleets, putting the scale of today’s orderbook in a less worrisome light.
This is among the insights from a commentary on the theme of the ageing global fleet circulated by Greece-based Xclusiv Shipbrokers this week.
Xclusiv said there are 1,856 bulk carriers aged 21 years or older, a 12% increase since a year ago and equivalent to 13% of all dry bulk vessels of more than 10,000 dwt.
Another 16% of the fleet now falls into the 16- to 20-year category with the number of vessels in this band is up 29% from January 2024.
One of the fast-ageing segments of the market is handysize bulkers, of which 426 ships, or 15% of the handysize fleet, are 21 years or older.
This compared with just 260 handysizes on order.
The picture of the tanker fleet presented by Xclusiv was even more aged.
Overall, 18% of the tanker fleet was 21 years or older, reflecting a 12% increase in the number of tankers turning 21 years since last January, mirroring the movement in the dry bulk fleet.
The number of tankers in the 16- to 20-year age group has risen by 13% in the past year and represents a huge 29% of the fleet.
Xclusiv said that 34% of the 826 medium range one tankers worldwide were more than 21 years old was “concerning”, while just 63 tankers were on order for this segment.
About 16% of panamax and long range one tankers have had their 21st birthday, with only 69 on order.
Of 468 aframaxes and long range two tankers, 17% are 21 years old or older, although there are 225 new vessels of these categories on order.
Upcoming policy decisions by the Trump administration regarding China’s maritime dominance, however, will be “highly consequential”, said the shipbroker.
Chinese builders have secured “commanding” shares of the world orderbook in the main ship types, including 70% of dry cargo vessels, 68% of tankers and 75% of containership orders, according to Xclusiv.
Any US interventions, however, faced “practical challenges,” it suggested, including having an impact on the competitiveness of US exports through higher freight rates.
“Moreover, many China-built vessels are owned by Western interests, complicating any restrictive measures,” Xclusiv added.
“The global maritime industry's current need for shipyard capacity, particularly for retrofitting existing vessels and building new environmentally compliant ships, also makes aggressive action against Chinese yards problematic.”