The Daily View: Snakes and ladders
Your latest edition of Lloyd’s List’s Daily View — the essential briefing on the stories shaping shipping
EUROPEAN new year celebrations have been pretty jittery affairs.
In between the niceties and canapes, conversation about the year ahead has so far tended to quickly divide down geopolitical lines.
The fear, panic and deep despair among liberal Europeans is palpable, with good reason. From their perspective the current political and economic outlook represents nothing short of an existential crisis.
The more exuberant conversationalists tend to divide into a minority of political idealists and corporate pragmatists.
Uncertainty, disruption, inefficiencies — these are all good for business. A ripping up of the rule book, even more so.
While there are degrees of sophistication and candour in how that sentiment is being expressed, the bottom liners are not-so-secretly very happy that there’s plenty of profit navigating others’ existential crisis.
Disruption is by now guaranteed, it’s just a question of how confidently you ride that wave.
The Davos gathering may have hit peak pessimism this week in Switzerland but stalk the coffee breaks of shipping conferences in Europe and US and the vibe is much more pro-Trump, regardless of personal politics.
Trump is volatility and volatility is good for business, explained one unguarded interviewee today.
With Chinese New Year celebrations approaching it will be interesting to test the mood in Asia where a more pragmatic approach tends to dominate.
China still has much to be concerned about, but things could be worse. Trump has held back from imposing fresh tariffs on day one, China’s currency did not weaken and while the stock market wobbled, it did not plunge.
It’s likely to be a very different vibe as the Asian shipping community start looking ahead at what’s in store for the year of the snake.
It is worth noting that while the snake may carry negative connotations in the west, in China it holds a more complex and varied symbolism, being simultaneously associated with good fortune, as well as cunning, evil, threat and terror.
How happy your new year outlook is depends on how you are looking at the opportunities and risks right now.
Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List