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Shipping starts to test Red Sea waters

Data shows some vessels are returning to Bab el Mandeb transits but most of the industry is continuing to steer clear

There has been no meaningful change in traffic in the week following the Houthis announcement of a partial halt to attacks

THE partial lifting of restrictions in the Red Sea has not triggered a mass return to the beleaguered shipping lane that passes through these waters, but the Bab el Mandeb is now a viable option for some that had been avoiding the area.

It has been one week since the Houthis issued a notice saying they would no longer target US- and UK-owned, managed and flagged ships after the implementation of the Gaza ceasefire deal.

Analysis of traffic through the Bab el Mandeb and Suez Canal reveals the announcement has failed to persuade large swathes of the industry to return to the region.

According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel-tracking data, transits through the Bab el Mandeb totalled 223 over the last week, up 4% week on week but in line with levels seen during the past several months.

Transits through the Suez Canal dropped 7% to 194.

 

 

As anticipated, the numbers confirm a normalisation in Red Sea traffic volumes will not happen overnight, but they do reveal there are some shipowners and operators who now view the Red Sea as being open for business.

Of the vessels that sailed through the Bab el Mandeb last week, nearly 25 were either returning to the chokepoint having avoided the area since the end of 2023, or they were making their first voyage through the strait having no history of such transits during the past two years.

The Joint Maritime Information Center said six vessels with US or UK association have transited the threat area since January 19, 2025.

“JMIC assesses that as the peace agreement progresses and vessels and infrastructure remain untargeted, improved stability is expected; however, the risk in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden remain elevated,” JMIC said in its most recent weekly report.

Maritime security analysts are not surprised that much of the industry is continuing to divert around the Cape of Good Hope.

“The Houthis retain the capability to resume attacks against ships in the Red Sea at very short notice, so the risk can change very quickly,” says EOS Risk Group head of advisory Martin Kelly.

“This will likely continue to deter shipping companies from taking the risk of being in Houthi missile or drone range in the event the Gaza ceasefire fails and the Houthis return to the former target profile.”

The ceasefire has been described as fragile and tensions in the region remain high.

Political volatility is one reason shipowners and operators are continuing to reroute, the other is the unpredictability of the Houthis themselves.

While the door has seemingly been opened to much of the shipping industry, Israel-owned tonnage continues to be at risk of being targeted. This naturally puts other parts of the industry at risk.

“The Houthis have consistently adopted a loose definition of what constitutes a target when justifying their attacks by construing false, tenuous or outdated links between the vessels they target and their stated adversaries,” said Control Risks associate analyst Arran Kennedy.

“Consequently, most non-Israel-owned ships will likely continue to avoid the region in the meantime, and some will continue to do so until the Houthis issue a full declaration that its maritime campaign is over.”

 

 

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