THE RED Sea crisis is not the only reason container lines are still making a lot of money. Strong US consumer demand is also helping carriers keep rates profitable despite very high newbuild deliveries.

The good news for container lines: US demand looks like it is holding firm.

On Monday, Descartes released data on January containerised imports. Inbound volumes to all US ports totalled 2,487,470 teu, making it the best January on record. January imports were up 5% versus December and up 9% year on year.

During the peak of the pandemic boom, US imports reached 2.5m-2.6m teu in some months, but were often below current levels.

The NRF partners with Hackett Associates to publish Global Port Tracker, which covers 13 leading US ports. Global Port Tracker projects that US containerised imports to the ports it covers will be up 5% in 1H25 versus 1H24 and up 21% versus 1H23.

Retail federation says members are front-loading

Some of the recent import strength appears to be front-loading, which could lead to inventory overhangs later in the year.

“Retailers have been front-loading imports of key products for several months because of the potential for the port strike in January as well as to get ahead of potential tariffs,” said the NRF. “Imports are expected to remain high as retailers continue to bring in cargo ahead of growing tariffs on China and threats against other nations.”

Descartes said the import surge in January came “amid rising trade tensions between the US and its top trading partners, with importers pushing to secure goods ahead of tariffs”.

The US imposed an incremental 10% tariff on all goods from China on February 4. These duties are in addition to existing tariffs, which vary by category and include many exceptions, and average around 10%.

US imports from China were particularly strong last month, which could be due to tariff mitigation strategies as well as the earlier-than-usual Chinese New Year holiday on January 29.

According to Descartes, the US imported 997,909 teu of containerised goods from China in January, just shy of the all-time high of 1,022,913 teu last July. US imports from China in January were up 11% versus December and rose 10% year on year.

Imports from China accounted for 40.1% of total US containerised imports last month, the highest share since February 2022, during the pandemic boom.

Maersk not worried about Trump tariffs (yet)

Maersk chief executive Vincent Clerc highlighted the strength of US demand during a quarterly call on Thursday. “Customers are very positive on market growth. They expect that the incoming administration will be good for consumption and therefore they are talking about fairly strong volumes.”

Asked about Trump’s tariffs, Clerc said, “The way our customers are thinking about this — and the reason [demand] is still very strong when I look at how many purchase orders have been placed for the coming months despite the talk on tariffs — there are two things.

“First, they think that the new administration came in because the American people were tired of inflation, and therefore [the administration] is very aware that reigniting a bout of inflation is going to be very detrimental politically. This creates a lot of confidence among retailers and companies that there will continue to be a high level of consumption, because that is what has been promised to the US consumer.”

The second reason to be less fearful of tariffs, he said, is that “during the first round of tariffs under the first Trump administration, forex movements between the renminbi and the dollar compensated for the tariff, so the US consumer could basically pay the tariff without feeling it when he was going to the department store to buy goods.

“I think that there is some expectation that as long as tariffs are measured, and as long as the administration has an eye on inflation, things will be okay and it will not have a huge impact of volumes.”

“Of course, if things turn completely and somebody slaps on a 60% tariff overnight, that will have an impact, but that is not what seems to be the dominant scenario so far. We’re actually seeing a more measured implementation and a more measured response from China, which leads us to believe that at least so far, there is some balance.”