THE already tenuous prospect of a return to the Red Sea became dimmer on Monday, with the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, which the Houthis claimed predicated the near-total end of their Red Sea blockade, hitting a snag.

Hamas said on Monday evening it would postpone the release of hostages indefinitely, citing alleged violations by Israel. Shortly after Hamas’ announcement, the Israel Defense Forces decided to raise its level of readiness and halted planned leave for combat soldiers in its Southern Command. US President Donald Trump then weighed in and gave Hamas an ultimatum.

The Israel security cabinet was set to convene on Tuesday morning.

The developments loom large over any potential return to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, where the Houthis announced a partial stop to their aggression after the ceasefire came into effect on January 19.

In an address on Tuesday, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said the Yemeni faction was ready to intervene in the instance of an Israeli escalation in Gaza but did not specify against whom.

“We affirm our firm, principled, humanitarian, moral and religious position in supporting the Palestinian people and their Mujahideen at all levels, militarily, politically and media-wise,” said al-Houthi.

“We are ready even for military intervention in any round of escalation against Gaza at any time.”

Aside from their Red Sea campaign, the Houthis also lobbed hundreds of missiles and drones against Israel since the war broke out in late 2023, according to the IDF.

EOS Risk Group head of advisory Martin Kelly warned clients in an advisory on Tuesday to anticipate the resumption of hostilities in Gaza, and the Red Sea, amid the stalled talks and the US threat.

“Any US contribution to the demise of the Israel-Gaza ceasefire could see a resumption of Houthi attacks against US shipping in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea,” Kelly said.

The Houthis announced a near-total stop to their Red Sea attacks on January 19, but traffic through the Bab el Mandeb has not rebounded.

According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data, transits through the beleaguered shipping lane have been steady and in line with “new” normal levels, suggesting the industry is still wary of the safety risks.

However, there were some anecdotal signs of operators testing the waters, with an Oman-linked liquefied natural gas carrier becoming the first LNG carrier not affiliated with Russia to transit the Bab el Mandeb in over a year.

A small number of shipowners and operators have been returning to the Red Sea each week since the Houthis’ announcement, but the vast majority are waiting for proof of stability before stopping their Cape of Good Hope diversions.

Suez Canal Authority chief Osama Rabie said he expects traffic through the canal to gradually return to normal levels by late March and fully recover by the middle of the year if the ceasefire holds, Bloomberg reported on Monday.

The canal’s revenues dropped by around 60% because of the war, and losses for the fiscal year ending June will be around $7bn, he told Egyptian television.

The last reported attack in the Red Sea against commercial vessels took place on December 10, when Houthi drones and missiles targeting a convoy of US-flagged vessels and US warships were repelled.

Since the ceasefire began on January 19, Israel released more than 500 Palestinian prisoners in return for 16 Israeli and five Thai hostages held by Hamas.

Both Israel and Hamas are reportedly seeking to overcome the latest hurdle. The next exchange is slated for Saturday, when Hamas is scheduled to release three additional hostages.

However, president Trump said that if “all the hostages” — not just the three scheduled to be released — are not freed by noon on Saturday, the ceasefire agreement should be voided and “let all hell break out”.

“Saturday at 12:00 o’clock, and after that, it’s going to be a different ball game,” Trump told reporters on Monday.