SHARE prices of container liner operators have risen sharply in recent trading sessions as prospects for peace in the Middle East have deteriorated.

Shares of Zim are up 21% in February to date, with Maersk up 18% and Hapag-Lloyd up 15%.

In general, shipping stock pricing has had an inverse relationship with peace and stability. The current situation for container liner stocks is an extreme example.

Liner profits in 2025 are highly dependent on when services return to the Suez Canal, an event that would significantly reduce voyage distances and increase effective capacity. Maersk’s guidance for full-year earnings before interest and taxes is very wide and acutely dependent on the timing of the Suez reopening, ranging from break-even if Suez transits resume mid-year to ebit of $3bn if they don’t resume before year-end.

Maersk estimates that a reopening of the Suez route would inject 1.5m-2m teu of capacity into the market, on top of 2m teu of additional capacity from newbuilding deliveries this year.

The Houthis have pledged to cease attacks on ships if the Israel-Hamas ceasefire holds, but the odds have shifted toward a resumption of hostilities. That, in turn, has pushed back the predicted timing and reduced the predicted likelihood of a full-scale return to the Suez route for container shipping.

Container shipping stocks have emerged over the past 14 months as an inverse bet on Middle East peace, and stock traders are now betting that peace will not prevail.

Spot rates fall, liner stocks rise

Container liner stocks typically trade down when spot rates are falling. Spot rates are now falling — particularly in Asia-Europe trades most affected by Red Sea reroutings — but stock prices are now moving in the opposite direction as spot rates due to the threat to the ceasefire in Israel.

Container liner stocks fell in January, weighed by falling spot rates, the January 19 announcement by the Houthis that they would cease attacks on non-Israel-linked ships, and concerns that tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump would curb future demand.

But container liner stocks have now recouped most of the losses suffered earlier this year, courtesy of gains in the past few days.

Meanwhile, Trump has inserted himself directly into the Middle East situation, further supporting liner share pricing.

The US president said he wants bring Gaza under US control, displace the population and develop the property — a plan that would render a Red Sea reopening to shipping less likely.

Trump’s “Riviera of the Middle East” scheme is the latest example of his fixation on expanding US territory, complementing his hopes to take back the Panama Canal (by military force if necessary), buy Greenland (which according to Republican congressman Earl Carter would be renamed Red, White and Blueland), and compel Canada to become America’s 51st state by threatening to impose tariffs (at a time when Canadians are booing the US national anthem at professional sporting events).

“We’re going to have it [Gaza],” said Trump on Tuesday. “We’re not going to buy it. We’re going to take it. And we’re going to keep it. Nobody is going to question it. We’ll have lots of good things built there, including hotels.” 

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said of Trump in an address on Tuesday: “Do you imagine, you stupid fool, that the honourable people of Gaza, after all of their unparalleled steadfastness and great sacrifice, will sell you their homeland? With the American and Trumpian madness, it is the duty of Muslims to understand, cooperate, meet and unite.”

Al-Houthi said of the potential for renewed fighting between Israel and Hamas: “We are ready for military intervention in any round of escalation against Gaza at any time.”

Container futures gain alongside stocks

Upside from Middle East unrest is not only showing up in share prices, it is boosting container futures as well.

Jefferies analyst Omar Nokta said on Tuesday, “Container futures are again rallying, the fourth straight day of relatively heavy gains.

“These pertain to the SCFI [Shanghai Containerized Freight Index] Asia-Europe contracts, which have become increasingly actively traded since their inception in 2023. The February-December curve gained 6% today, which follows [a gain of] 10% yesterday, 10% on Friday and 6% on Thursday.

“While spot freight rates on the Asia-Europe routes have been softer of late, and also on the transpacific, positive sentiment has made its way into the futures market. News that the Israel-Hamas ceasefire may be in jeopardy… appears to have boosted sentiment on the basis that a Red Sea return would be unlikely in the near term should the ceasefire break.”