COLDER weather affected North American oil production in January, contributing to a fall in global oil supply of 950,000 barrels per day for the first month of the year.

The most recent report published by the International Energy Agency recorded global supply at 102.7m bpd last month. The drop in US production only compounded existing output declines in Nigeria and Libya.

But that figure of 102.7m bpd was still 1.9m bpd higher than in the corresponding period last year, led by gains in the Americas, the IEA said.

The agency predicts global oil supply to increase by 1.6m bpd to 104.5m bpd in 2025, with non-Opec+ producers accounting for the majority of those gains, if the cartel’s voluntary production cuts remain in place.

Global demand growth has been revised upwards slightly by the IEA to 1.1m bpd, following a downgrade of 2024 growth to 870,000 bpd.

Demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 was weaker than expected, despite a drop in temperatures. US deliveries in November were particularly weak, the IEA said, contracting by 510,000 bpd, their steepest fall since June.

Growth in 2025 was still expected to be led by China, driven almost entirely by its petrochemical sector, the agency said.

It was still too early to see how oil trade will be affected by the prospect of increased US tariffs or the impact of yet more sanctions on Iran and Russia, the IEA said, while acknowledging the “remarkable resilience and adaptability” of the oil markets.