SHOOTING from the hip with political pitches may be en vogue right now, but details still ultimately matter.

Headlines suggesting that Estonia’s navy was ready to detain vessels in international waters missed some of the nuance of what was actually said, and nuance matters right now.

Estonia, along with the rest of the Baltic states, is understandably keen to avoid a dark fleet incident washing up on its shores or another undersea cable getting mysteriously severed.

But it is also keen to retain freedom of navigation. As is Russia.

So the question is: how far can it go to protect itself and under what circumstances can it intervene with a ship in international waters?

We have clarified what was actually said, both with the Estonian government and international lawyers, and the short version is that what Estonia is threatening is just about kosher when it comes to the law of the sea.

But all sides are pushing the boundaries here; under the — still hypothetical — situation that Estonia’s navy pulled over a Russia-linked tanker, it is entering into the realm of geopolitics rather than international law.

Russia has been pretty clear with its own threats. Take one of our ships and there will be consequences, was the gist of the rhetoric, alongside some vaguely insulting jibes about Baltic pseudo-states being something of a clown show.

Cut through the schoolyard sabre-rattling though and what we are looking at here is how far we are prepared to trust the rules-based order of maritime law.

For all the rhetoric and the fact that Russia has knowingly undermined maritime safety by amassing a parallel fleet, Moscow is actually a stickler for the rules.

A quick glance at global port state control records will show you that Russia is the second most unforgiving detainer of vessels on grounds of safety contraventions when it comes to port state control inspections. The first is the biggest importer of discounted Russian crude — China.

Rules matter because they uphold a system that is built on the basis that nobody wants to see accidents happen, and Russia’s track record suggests that they believe that.

The problems emerge when geopolitics intersect with rules, particularly the ambiguous ones. The details of how far Baltic states and Russia are prepared to push Unclos is going to matter a great deal to everyone.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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