AFTER 15 years of can-kicking, the International Maritime Organization has to produce a carbon price on shipping emissions this year.

There are two intersessional meetings (the first started on Monday) and one Marine Environment Protection Committee to go for the IMO to agree and approve its mid-term measures to get shipping to net zero by or around 2050.

Lloyd’s List and others will be watching for the white smoke to emerge at the end of this ISW-GHG 18, which is closed to the press. But how closely should you follow it?

Here is my quick take, for busy professionals:

First, don’t expect much clarity about a carbon price and fuel standard until the last minute, possibly at October’s extraordinary MEPC.

Second, the big “approval” due at MEPC83 in April just means approving a package of potential Marpol amendments for circulation to the parties, for adoption six months later.

We may get the foundations of a regulation then, while leaving the interiors until later.

Third, while more countries support a separate carbon levy,  the US and China still don’t. A levy is the simplest and best way to go but that doesn’t mean we will get one.

Lastly, the outcome will depend on international politics, not on what’s good for the shipping industry. Countries will vie for their share of the vast sums a carbon price could raise and seek to gain economic advantage from whatever is adopted.

Loopholes and carve-outs may make things easier in the short run, but complicate the green transition later.

The IMO works by consensus, so it has to try to please everyone. We all know taking this approach may end up pleasing no one. But it is the only option we have.

Declan Bush
Senior reporter, Lloyd’s List

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