OVER a month since the Houthis’ partial lifting of Red Sea restrictions and more than two months since the last attempted attack on shipping, the majority of shipowners and operators continue to avoid the international shipping lane passing through the Red Sea.

Last week 177 cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 dwt, those most likely to be internationally trading, passed through the Suez Canal, according to an analysis of Lloyd’s List Intelligence vessel-tracking data.

Although down 15% week on week, it is in line with traffic volumes seen over the past several months.

Over the previous four weeks, from January 27 to February 23, 745 transits were recorded through the Suez Canal, the equivalent of 54.7m dwt.

Transits totalled 794 vessels between December 30, 2024, and January 26, 2025, equivalent to 57.8m dwt.

Passings naturally fluctuate month to month and week to week. A similar decrease was recorded over the same period in 2023, the most recent available benchmark.

The situation is similar for the Bab el Mandeb.

A slight increase in transits was recorded week on week, from 215 to 218, but within the normal range.

There were 860 transits through the strait over the past four weeks, about 56.5m dwt in tonnage terms, compared to 879 and 57.7m dwt respectively in the four weeks prior.

No meaningful increase in traffic volumes through the Red Sea chokepoints does not mean that there hasn’t been a resumption of transits, only that there has been no rebound.

Since January 19, the day the Houthis announced a partial stop to their campaign against merchant shipping, there have been just over 100 transits where ships are either returning to the Bab el Mandeb or sailing having not used the strait during the time of heightened tensions and uncertainty.

The Suez Canal Authority said 47 ships have rerouted from the Cape of Good Hope to the Suez Canal since the beginning of February.

“We expect the return of more navigation lines as stability continues in the region,” the SCA said in a statement on Sunday.

Security analysts say the shipping industry is, and will continue to be, cautious about a wholesale Red Sea return.

“Everybody knows that the Houthi campaign isn’t over, it’s just on hold,” says Risk Intelligence senior analyst Dirk Siebels.

The Houthis still have the capabilities to attack ships and would be able to resume attacks on vessels within their target profile quickly if the ceasefire collapses.

United Nations secretary-general António Guterres described the ceasefire as “precarious” during remarks to the Human Rights Council on February 24.

Accusations of violations have been made by both Israel and Hamas since the ceasefire was implemented, and the first phase of the deal is due to expire this weekend unless an  extension is agreed.

“For ship operators, it’s complicated because one attack would be enough to be back to square one,” says Siebels. “In a nutshell, everybody wants to go back but nobody wants to risk being the first so it’s catch-22 for now.”

While it has been well over two months since the last attempted attack targeting merchant shipping, the Houthis have not gone completely quiet.

Reuters reported that the Iran-backed militant group launched a missile attack on an American fighter jet and drone this week.

“The US likely refrained from conducting retaliatory strikes against the missile launch sites to avoid giving the Houthis a pretext to resume attacks on US-linked commercial ships,” said Control Risks associate analyst Arran Kennedy.

If the Houthis were to be successful in hitting a US military asset the US would likely respond under the guise of counter-terrorism operations, prompting the Houthis to redesignate US-linked ships on their so-called ban list, added Kennedy.