NEWS HAS entered the quantum realm of late.

Attempting to pinpoint the particulars of a policy announcement introduces a significant uncertainty about its momentum, accuracy and very existence.

Stories, statements and opinions are routinely couched in the future conditional tense, riddled with caveats and double negatives.

If the US taxes Chinese ships, liners could pull capacity from US ports. But sanity will prevail, right?

MSC chief, Soren Toft, is only moderately worried because a Trump administration so preoccupied by inflation will come to realise the baffling contradictions in plans as they are sketched out right now.

If they were done in a slightly different way, we would not see the same effect, he rationally assures us, displaying a quaint commitment to reason and logic.

If Trump persists, the tariffs on Canada and Mexico will stand as the most extreme and dangerous act of protectionism by an American president in nearly a century.

If the US under Trump retreats from the international stage and abandons its allies, that would be bad news for trade — and by extension, shipping.

If the US retrenchment of climate policy results in objections at the International Maritime Organization, just as we have seen this week in the aviation sector, it won’t be enough to derail the global momentum already underway. But, if they start threatening countries with transactional tariffs because of their position in IMO debates, then things change and the sustainability assumptions that have underpinned investment over the past few years evaporate.

If the US government really is preparing to ease some sanctions on Russia as it seeks to boost diplomatic and economic ties, and if Russia really has agreed to assist the Trump administration and broker nuclear talks with Iran, then the risk and compliance landscape changes again, along with the markets, and the flow and price of oil.

If today’s designation of the Houthis as a terrorist organisation by the US is a precursor to military strikes in Yemen, then any hope of the Red Sea reopening will be dashed.

With the increased likelihood of attacks on the Houthis, and the uncertainty surrounding the Gaza ceasefire, the bottom line is that the security threat is increasing and the associated risk to merchant ships goes up a notch.

Of course, all these conditional “ifs” are still hypothetical at the point of writing today’s email. By the time you have read this, the news will have overtaken such scenarios and we will again start hypothesising about the previously outlandish prospects of which ‘what ifs’ may become reality tomorrow.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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