DIPLOMACY is like jazz: endless variations on a theme.

European countries are discussing plans that will let them carry out seizures of Moscow’s oil-exporting tankers in the Baltic Sea, potentially under the pretext of environmental or piracy grounds.

The US is formulating ways to stop Iran-linked ships at sea under the guise of an initiative originally set up to prevent the trafficking of weapons of mass destruction.

Both are going to be problematic, legally speaking, but we are fast approaching the point where geopolitics is overriding the niceties of established international law and the rules-based order.

Assuming either or both are formulated into anything approaching an official plan, the language used is going to matter a great deal.

The shadow fleet is increasingly a phrase that comes with a trigger warning among governments.

The foreign ministers of the Group of Seven major democracies are due to be meeting in Quebec on Wednesday and, as is customary at such gatherings, a communique is being drafted in advance.

The problem is that the language over the shadow fleet is dividing the room before anyone arrives.

The US wants to delete references to sanctions and Russia's war in Ukraine, and paste in some tougher language on China. But they absolutely don’t want references to the shadow fleet and have reportedly rejected a Canadian proposal to establish a task force aimed in that direction.

Just as China will adamantly refuse to go anywhere near a multilateral document that mentions “freedom of navigation” thanks to its diplomatic language over Taiwan, now the US is not going to touch anything that namechecks the “dark” or “shadow fleet” for fear of blocking a deal with Moscow.

It’s not that the US are squeamish about stomping all over international law and targeting shipping as a means to political ends — far from it. It’s just they don’t want to annoy the Russians right now.

Stopping ships in international waters linked to Iran, however, is fair game and if that stamps out the growing international business of fake shipping registries as a happy byproduct of that process, then so be it.

Much like jazz, these diplomatic compositions are going to be divisive and not to everyone’s taste.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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