THE TRUMP administration’s plan to charge massive fees for port calls by Chinese ships and operators that own or order Chinese tonnage would be terrible for US importers, exporters and consumers, according public comments filed with the US Trade Representative.

But would it bad for container shipping lines? Could it actually be profitable?

Ocean carriers made a fortune in 2021-2022 amid the pandemic. Houthi attacks disrupted trade and rescued shipping lines from overcapacity in 2024. Donald Trump could play the role of the Houthis in 2025.

Supply chain chaos typically causes spot rates to skyrocket. If Trump levies these port fees, there would be chaos.

ACL chief executive Andrew Abbott warned in his USTR comments of “a freight rate explosion that would dwarf the Covid-era rate increases and devastate the supply chains of American companies”.

Container lines have already laid out their game plan, should the fee plan go forward. Services from Asia and Europe typically call at three to four US ports per rotation. They would only call at one or two to reduce their per-call fee exposure.

That would immediately create congestion at America’s largest ports, and leave smaller- and medium-sized ports heavily underserved.

The Covid-era supply chain crisis wasn’t just about port congestion, it was about the snarls inland for trucking, rail and container equipment. Rerouting imports to only the largest ports would have an enormous effect on inland transport.

Rail lines serving the largest US ports would quickly back up. Trucking demand would surge as boxes would need to travel much further to distribution centres. Container equipment would become stuck, just as it did during the pandemic.

The port fees would be paid by carriers, then charged back to shippers. Annual contracts that begin in May are being negotiated now, and they will all include clauses that pass along the fees, should they be enacted.

Carriers would implement surcharges for spot cargoes. If they are forbidden from doing so and a service was rendering highly unprofitable, carriers would pull that service and put those ships in non-US trades, increasing spot rates for the US services that remain.

It’s an ominous scenario for American businesses and consumers. For the shipping lines headquartered in Europe and Asia — including in China, the specific target of the fee plan — it sounds like an opportunity.

Greg Miller
Senior maritime reporter, Lloyd’s List

Click here to view the latest Lloyd’s List Daily Briefing