IRAN has been subjected to sanctions for so long now that the resumption of “maximum pressure” from the Trump administration initially begged the question, what’s left to sanction?

Well, quite a lot is the short answer.

Of the 503 vessels tracked carrying sanctioned Iranian oil and gas, 46% are directly sanctioned, which leaves plenty of room for the US Treasury to expand its hit list of outcast IMO numbers.

But if US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is genuinely going to “Make Iran Broke Again”, as he promised last week, it will take more than targeting specific ships.

Sanctions to date have failed to stem Iran’s growing exports, which increased in February to 1.7m barrels per day, up from 1.3m bpd in January.

Partly that’s down to ineffectual enforcement, but it’s also the case that Iran has led the way in terms of circumvention innovation.

Our analysis today indicates that over half of LPG cargoes claiming Iraqi origin may actually be Iranian. The increasingly common use of fake AIS trails into Iraq, combined with forged shipping documents, has become the standard method used by companies behind a growing shadow LPG fleet to disguise Iranian LPG shipments.

If the US is going to crack down on these trades it is going to have to get to grips with some increasingly sophisticated obfuscation techniques.

The US is also going to have to continue looking for targets outside of Iran.

Follow the money and the company registrations and you will end up taking a global tour from the Marshall Islands to the Middle East via Hong Kong and some pretty opaque tax havens.

Go looking for the ultimate beneficial ownership behind the management companies and you clock up some air miles visiting the UAE, India, Singapore and explore some of the roads less travelled through China.

As for the class and insurance arrangements — well there may be some doors closer to home left to knock on.

In addition to sanctioning Iran’s oil minister, the US has designated companies in Singapore and Indonesia, on the basis that tugs were involved in illicit ship-to-ship transfers. That sends a pretty clear message that every link in Iran’s sanctions evasion network is under scrutiny.

The question is, how far will this resurgent maximum pressure campaign go? Our analysis this week revealed that 30% of the ships carrying Iranian oil and gas are now flying either unknown or fraudulently registered flags.

If the US is going to push ahead with proposed plans to disrupt Iranian trades by stopping ship at sea that is going to ruffle quite a few feathers well beyond Tehran. The IMO has recorded over 200 fake-flagged ships, but everyone knows there are likely many more floating around unnoticed.

The Trump administration has shown it has more than ample appetite to upset third countries in pursuit of its objectives. Today’s latest sanctions salvo suggests that the maximum pressure is only just getting started.

But if they are serious about cutting Iranian oil exports from the current 1.5m-1.6m barrels per day, “back to the trickle they were when US President Trump left office”, they are going to uncover a much bigger, internationalised list of complicit companies in the process.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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