HOUTHI missiles may have been unusually absent from the headlines of late, and transits of cargo-carrying vessels through Red Sea chokepoints are nominally up.

But don’t mistake that for a substantive shift in the risk assessment for shipping in the Red Sea. It would also be wise not to make the mistake of underestimating the Houthis, or assuming that US bombs have made shipping safer again.

Despite months of relative calm, the shipping industry remains, largely, reluctant to return to sailing through the Red Sea.

A small spike in traffic this month offers an interesting insight into some threat assessments being updated in light of relative calm, but overall the change is minimal and context is key.

Transits through the Bab el Mandeb strait are still down by half compared with early 2023 and while individual threat levels may be changing some voyage plans, the risk profile remains unchanged.

Whether the talks between US and Iran tabled for this weekend in Oman result in a “great deal” or a “bad day” for Iran sits with Donald Trump. Unsourced reports in the UK media suggesting that Iran might be prepared to abandon its Houthi allies, amid escalating US air strikes and the lure of a potential nuclear deal, should be taken with a hefty pinch of salt.

If Iran’s continued support for the Houthis is genuinely on the bargaining table, then a path to a reopened Red Sea may be on the cards later in the year. But such statements come with sufficient caveats to make such speculation almost pointless at this stage.

US Central Command tweeted an image this week showing rows of air-dropped munitions being prepared aboard the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman, underscoring the scale and intensity of American operations targeting Iran-backed Houthi forces.

Advocates for the bombing campaign insist it will reopen the Red Sea, but there is little evidence to support that assertion.

Even if the geopolitical risk facts can somehow be magicked away, there is going to be little enthusiasm from the shipping industry to return to the Red Sea anytime soon. The additional tonne-miles have been performing a very welcome job of propping up an otherwise flawed market imbalance and there is a real fear that peace in the Red Sea, as welcome as that would be, comes with the promise of a very hard landing for most shipping sectors.

The key takeaway to all this: don’t expect any significant change to Red Sea volumes.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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