IN HIS noted work on geopolitics, The Sneetches and Other Stories, Theodor Seuss Geisel described the impasse that occurred on the prairie of Prax when north- and south-going Zax failed to reach a détente.

Often seen as a fable on what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object, the contretemps at Prax is an apt description of how failed negotiations can have long-term and unintended consequences on those who stick to their positions without compromise.

Meanwhile, in the only slightly less fictional world of current geopolitics, the US and China are also failing to budge.

As we go to press, the shipping industry awaits the recommendations of the US Trade Representative on whether, and if so at what level, fees should be charged to ships built in China calling at US ports.

As a masterpiece in raising the price of goods coming into America, the move ranks alongside the 245% tariffs on some items from China and is likely to lead to massive increases in costs as well as additional disruption as shipping lines reorder their services.

Nevertheless, the unstoppable force of the Trump administration appears undeterred. No consequence, it seems, will cause it to deviate.

China, meanwhile, has refused to step aside to allow this manifest destiny to play out. As one commentator pointed out this week, China has existed for 4,000 years; for most of that time there was no US.

As well as imposing its own tariffs, banning the import of Boeing aircraft and the export of critical rare earth minerals, as Cichen Shen reports today, it also has the potential to impose fees on any ships not affected by the USTR fees.

That would create a world where every ship trading between the US and China would be forced to pay a fee that inevitably served no purpose at all.

The US effort is designed to boost US shipbuilding and hamper that of China. But as some have noted, the bigger winners here could be third countries with developing shipbuilding markets, particularly India.

Back on the prairie of Prax, the stalled negotiations went on indefinitely with the disputants expecting the world to stand still until a resolution was found.

“Of course, the world didn’t stand still. The world grew.

In a couple of years, the new highway came through

And they built it right over those two stubborn Zax

And left them there, standing unbudged in their tracks.”

James Baker,
News editor, Lloyd’s List

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