GLOBAL steel production increased 2.9% in March 2025, the first increase in this year.

Production for the quarter is still down 0.4% on the same period last year, but that gap has been narrowed from -2.2% at the end of February.

Last month’s increase was driven largely by big gains in Indian and Chinese production, which are by far the largest steel producers in the world.

Chinese production increased 4.6% in March 2025 on the same month last year, while Indian production increased 7% in the same period.

Indian production, in particular, has been increasing steadily since the beginning of the year, with production in the first quarter of 2025 up 6.8% on the same period last year.

That increase in domestic steel production has a two-pronged effect on shipping.

On the one hand, iron ore volumes discharging at Indian ports increased in the first three months of 2025 compared to 2024.

But increased iron ore demand for domestic steel has also meant fewer shipments leaving Indian ports, data from Signal Ocean shows.

Iron ore leaving Indian ports was down nearly 20% in March 2025 and more than 30% in February 2025. This affects the supramax sector most keenly, Signal said, with more than 75% of iron ore exports carried on the segment.

As India’s construction sector booms to meet growing housing demand, steel production looks set to increase into the future. That means less room for seaborne iron ore exports, as Indian furnaces consume more, and Chinese furnaces consume less amid well-covered dwindling demand.

Increased steel production could also mean increased imports arriving at Indian ports.

“Given that steel is typically shipped to India via supramaxes or handysize, this could mean that more supramax vessels are unloading in India without a new cargo to load,” Signal said.