IN A 1933 radio broadcast roughly three months after his inauguration, Franklin Delano Roosevelt coined the expression “the first 100 days”.

That duration of time has no particular constitutional or legal significance but has become the standard yardstick by which to assess the achievements of each incoming presidency.

Wednesday next week marks the end of the first 100 days of Trump 2.0, the only White House administration of our lifetimes to see the US shipping and shipbuilding industries a major national priority.

He clearly regards the return of a strong US-flag merchant marine and the rejuvenation of American shipbuilding as a vital corollary of wider plans to reindustrialise the Rust Belt.

Trump’s tactics are contrary to the economic orthodoxy of recent decades, a fact in which he positively revels, and will be anathema to much of the rest of the world.

Pushed through heedlessly, they risk sparking recession on a scale that would have been familiar when FDR first spoke to the nation.

But assuming that the MAGA revolution is neither derailed by financial markets nor manages to derail itself, they also represent opportunities for those positioned and inclined as to take advantage.

The supposedly reciprocal tariffs announced on the lawn of the Rose Garden on what Trump described as “Liberation Day” earlier this month are now on 90-day hold, except for the eye-watering 145% impost on Chinese goods.

Some major US trading partners may be able to use the breather to cut bilateral deals.

But projections from Drewry suggest the return of naked protectionism could spark a fall in demand for container shipping this year, for only the third time since the inception of containerisation itself.

The predicted drop of 1% will be roughly on a par with that witnessed in the pandemic year of 2020, when carriers cashed in with record profits.

But the uncertainty surrounding the return of protectionism will make it harder to pull that trick off again. As Drewry pointed out, there is no upside for anybody in a trade war.

This week was also noteworthy for the publication of the US Trade Representative’s updated proposals for port fees targeting China-built tonnage.

While hardly measures to gladden the hearts of free trade advocates, they mercifully include a number of sensible backpedals, reverse ferrets, semi and quarter U-turns and recalibrations from the initial iteration.

That said, ships owned by Chinese interests will be hit hard. Despite concessions that include a de facto fee cap, they will be penalised to the tune of millions of dollars a year.

The good news is that there is ostensibly a three-year suspension of fees for non-Chinese owners of China-built vessels who take delivery of equivalent of equivalent US-built capacity.

The bad news is that there is no way US shipyards in their current etiolated condition could meet even a fraction of the likely demand. But let us not allow such mundane considerations as reality to spoil this ingenious contrivance.

Under USTR plans, 1% of all US liquified natural gas exports will have to be exported on US-flagged and US-operated vessels starting in April 2028. After April 2029, those ships will additionally have to be US-built. The target level will then ratchet up to 15% by 2047.

In consequence, domestic shipyards may well prioritise churning out gas carriers over standard bulk carrier and boxship designs, no doubt charging a substantial further premium for what is already a premium vessel type.

In the country that pioneered flagging out, the idea that shipping companies would flock to return to their national flag would have seemed self-evidently laughable even 12 months ago.

Indeed, America has only hung on to the status of viable flag state at all because of the restrictions on cabotage imposed by the Jones Act and the juicy carrot of lucrative military contracts.

There will now be many more incentives to fly the stars and stripes, which could prove profitable for owners with clout and financial muscle to take advantage.

From a shipping standpoint, Trump’s first 100 days have been remarkable. The remaining 1,361 could yet prove more remarkable still.

US-flag tonnage is already more protected than its equivalent in any other rich country. It’s just about to get more protected still.