Duration of US-China trade war is key to container shipping demand
- The market has already suffered three weeks of lost China-US cargo, and given transportation times, an immediate resolution would still equate to at least two months of impact
- If US-China trade fully normalises two months from now — a scenario some might consider very optimistic — it could translate into over 1.3m teu in US cargo losses from China
- Some analysts fear US-China trade could face extended disruptions, and that even if US tariffs on China are reduced, they could still top 50%
The damage from the US-China trade war has already been done, even though it’s not yet apparent in the US economy. The negative effect on shipping demand in the near term and the scale of the eventual rebound when the trade war ends, hinges on the duration of the disruption