OLD king coal is not long for this world, apparently.

The dry bulk kingpins gathered in Geneva this week seem convinced that peak coal has already happened and, barring the possibility of a few “rainy day” spasms, we are now witnessing the inevitable decline of black gold as a cargo on ships.

Perhaps.

Certainly, the key demand indicators from China, the world’s largest coal consumer, stack up an argument that things are slowing down.

Beijing has been quietly accelerating the adoption of renewable energy sources even as the US performs its ungainly U-turn on climate policy. And it is worth noting that permits for new coal power plants dropped by 83% in the first half of 2024, with no major coal-based steel projects receiving approval during that period.

But, as the denizens of dry bulk were preparing their eulogy for coal’s funeral in Geneva yesterday, the population of Spain were offering a rather timely reminder that electricity consumption is accelerating faster than renewable sources can provide for it.

Coal may not be part of anyone’s sustainable future, but the reality is that most polluting of all fossil fuels consistently confounds projections announcing its demise. Projections have a pretty consistent habit of being pushed back.

Late last year, when the International Energy Agency was busy mapping out the likely paths of fossil and renewable energy sources, it quietly conceded the outlook for coal had been revised upwards again, due largely to greater electricity demand projections, notably from China and India.

Coal may be a dirty word in energy policy, but it is dependably reliable in a way that renewables are not yet. Major outages remind government of the need for consistency of supply and their domestic statisticians will remind leaders that electricity consumption is expected to grow six times faster than total energy demand between here and 2030.

Even if you believe that coal’s peak has passed, and frankly that seems questionable, it seems likely that we’re looking at an extended plateau of the black king’s reign rather than a rapidly disappearing era.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List 

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