Tariff reprieve upside vs Covid lockdown rebound: this time it’s different
- US importers need to fill the gap caused by China tariffs. Vizion data shows significant import declines in May and June, and those volumes need to be replaced
- Volume rebound will be temporary, in contrast to the pandemic rebound, because there is not the same demand-side drivers
- Even after the reprieve on China tariffs, average US global tariffs are the highest they’ve been since the late 1930s, implying that inflation risks to consumer demand are still high
Container shipping investors are bullish about the bounce-back of China-US volumes following the US decision to slash tariffs. Comparisons are being made to the volume surge after the initial Covid lockdowns, but there are some major differences between these two events
