DONALD Trump may be shying away from sanctions on Russia right now, but the EU and UK are pressing ahead without him.

Doubling the list of sanctioned shadow fleet tankers less than a week after Moscow launched a fighter jet in defence of one of the now double-listed vessels (Jaguar (IMO: 9293002) now has EU and UK sanctions and no flag state), sends a bold political message.

The longer Russia persists with its illegal and brutal war, the tougher our response will be, said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, to a chorus of support from EU leaders.

This is now a numbers game as much as it is a foreign policy strategy.

Since the EU introduced the oil price cap and sanctions on the shadow fleet, relevant Russian revenues have decreased by €38bn ($42bn), says Kallas. Russian revenues in March 2025 were 13.7% lower than those in March 2023 and 20.3% lower than those of March 2022.

And that is at least partly due to the now epically long list of tankers being sanctioned.

Over 10% of the fleet, or 14% if you’re looking at it in deadweight tonnage terms, is now sanctioned. And more sanctions are on the way, we are told.

Such scale carries some clout, with or without US backing, but only if you add enforcement to the mix.

As we have argued before, the size of this list does not remove these ships from operation. It does not stop them trading and it certainly does not stop them passing through EU waters under the protection of Russian jets, with or without flag states prepared to offer them refuge.

Growing the list of sanctioned tankers is not tackling the supply of ageing ships being sold into the dark fleet, and it only worsens the conditions that might see those worst offenders removed via scrapping.

The growing sanctions lists are, in effect, just building up a bigger problem to deal with down the line.

While the next package, we are told, may include a reduction in the oil price cap, that is now largely a moot point because all sanctions are being designated on the basis that these ships are essentially dangerous.

They are dangerous because they can’t get insured by any legitimate means, they cant access services, maintenance or repairs and they are increasingly flying the very worst flags or none at all, meaning there is little to no oversight of their activities.

Sanctions have created the economic conditions for the shadow fleet to flourish.

The growing sanctions lists are making the dark fleet darker and bigger.

Increasing the size of these lists on a regular basis does little to tackle the unintended problems these sanctions have created.

Size is not always the answer; it is what you do with it that counts.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List