AT LEAST Harry Truman waited a couple of weeks after the Second World War ended before calling in Britain’s Lend-Lease debt. In a forced deal that comes into effect today, Zelensky has handed Ukraine’s mineral rights over to the US, but finds himself no closer to a just peace.

In the three years and three months since Russian tanks rolled over the border, the maritime industries have worked bravely to continue supplying grain to hungry mouths in emerging markets, despite the fighting and its fallout.

Nothing new there. Shipowners, seafarers and marine insurers have, throughout history, kept vital cargoes flowing, even as earthly powers engage in their fiercest battles.

But the Ukraine invasion has wrought more changes to our business than any conflict since the now largely forgotten Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. Some of the disruption will fade away once a settlement is reached; other aspects risk becoming embedded.

As Lloyd’s List reports today, Russia’s main tanker operator Sovcomflot is reporting a net loss of $393m for the first quarter, making it an immediate loser from the West’s $60 a barrel price cap on Russian crude exports. But a company of SCF’s size should be able to take that on the chin.

Recent weeks have seen the open market price of oil fall below that level. Stems are now above board for legitimate tanker operators with the risk appetite to accept the fixtures.

Underwriters — who have done well out of Black Sea war risk, unless they were caught out in the wave of constructive total losses that accrued on the first anniversary date of the hostilities — have confirmed readiness to write what is now lawful business.

Like Sovcomflot, Norway’s Frontline also booked a tough Q1. It did make a profit, with net earnings of $33m. But that figure is well down on the $181m witnessed in the corresponding three months of 2024.

Chief executive Lars Barstad believes that sanctions enforcement is central to keeping the tanker market tight. Renewed opportunity for trading with Russia will probably represent a welcome boost to Frontline’s fortunes in the second quarter.

But in the longer view, quarter-to-quarter fluctuations in the bottom line of tanker outfits are an insignificant consideration.

Sovcomflot, Frontline and their rivals are not the main conduits by which Russian oil reaches willing buyers in India, China and elsewhere.

That role is now played by the dark fleet, which, after the additional designation of nearly 300 ships by the EU and UK this month, now makes up more than 10% of global tanker tonnage, or more than 14% in deadweight terms.

The Kremlin has expended military effort to ensure that they keep sailing. A Russian fighter jet entered Estonian airspace without permission after attempts by the Estonian navy to escort a dark fleet tanker heading for Primorsk out of its waters last week, prompting Nato to scramble jets in response. 

Older readers will remember how the Cold War generated a de facto split in world shipping, with communist countries establishing state-owned national carriers, sometimes on the basis of nationalising older, privately owned shipping companies.

Such are the roots of Sovcomflot and Cosco, with other examples including Chipolbrok, Navibulgar and Deutsche Seerederei Rostock. Democracies had their national carriers too, of course, and underpinned their viability through cargo preference schemes.

But even when tensions between Washington and Moscow were at their highest, the boundaries were not hard and fast; freedom of navigation was obtained without the intervention of fighter jets; and trade made a habit of ignoring ostensible ideological alignments where profits were to be made.

Government decrees regulating which ships can go where, and when they can do so, are now with us on an unprecedented scale. You don’t have to be a born-again libertarian to find the direction of travel alarming.

With the parallel fleet comes parallel marine insurance mechanisms. The share of world tonnage entered with International Group P&I clubs has fallen several percentage points, from around 90% to 85% or less.

This is almost solely down to sanctions, as vessels debarred from entering IG clubs seek alternatives of untested financial strength. Some vessels may be entirely without any meaningful liability insurance whatsoever.

If this picture is allowed to calcify, the reassurance that traditional P&I covers provides to port authorities and littoral states cannot but be seriously undermined.

Meanwhile, the slaughter in Ukraine proceeds incessantly. While there are no reliable figures, reasonable estimates suggest Russia may have lost up to 210,000 combatants, and the defenders perhaps 80,000. This is before the tens of thousands of civilian deaths are added into the equation.

Last week saw the breakup of face-to-face peace talks in Istanbul, with a limited prisoner swap agreement between the two sides the maximum extent of progress, and Putin rejecting calls for a 30-day ceasefire.

No further negotiations are planned, and military analysts believe Russia is preparing a summer offensive in a bid to gain further bloody ground.

Ukraine deserves release from its agony. One day, shipping may be able to get back to doing what it does best.