FORECASTS are starting to come in about what the new International Maritime Organization net zero framework means for shipping. They make for interesting, if grim, reading.

In a nutshell, ammonia will be the cheapest fuel for future compliance from the mid-2030s. Probably ‘blue’ ammonia, made from natural gas and carbon capture, since the ‘green’ synthetic variety costs too much and probably will do for decades.

Methanol is out of the money, UCL and consultancy Umas argue in a new report, while LNG is a mixed bag; good for a short time if you already have it, but the shine quickly wears off for those still waiting to order.

On-board carbon capture looks like a waste of time. And biofuels? Most agree they will get more expensive over time as more people want them, so cannot be relied on forever. But how long does that mean in practice?

Paying to comply (doing nothing) for a few years might be the best option for most of the fleet after all, unless the IMO increases the cost of its penalties.

Of course, we can’t predict the full effects until the IMO decides how to classify and reward zero or near-zero carbon fuels. That decision could take until mid-2027, leaving the industry in the limbo to which it has become accustomed.

The IMO GFI has a frustrating contradiction. Its stringency points to expensive e-fuels being the only option long-term. But it does little to make that world a reality by pushing the industry to invest in such fuels. Is green ammonia the best option if there won’t be any of it to burn?

E-fuels might get their chance in years to come, if the ravages of climate change mean everyone is prepared to sacrifice more for the planet than they are now. But as it stands I don’t see this regulation making them happen.

This leaves shipping to muddle along in the meantime, adding administrative hassle without much helping the planet.

UCL and Umas say that green e-fuels could still happen one day, if the IMO designs its reward subsidies just right. Putting it delicately, the best possible result is not always the one the IMO produces.

At the end of the day, shipping must plan for the regulation it’s given. There are many improvements to be made without changing fuels, and easier green targets can be helpful in the short term. But in many ways this is a bad policy, however revolutionary a feat of diplomacy.

IMO member states must fix it while they still can.

Declan Bush
Senior reporter, Lloyd’s List

Click here to view the latest Lloyd’s List Daily Briefing