NORTH Korea may be isolated, but it offers an instructive lesson in how illicit maritime trade can expand where demand necessitates it.

Russia has been supporting North Korea for years, but rapidly expanding demand from Moscow for munitions has offered Pyongyang the opportunity it needed to ramp up its trading partnerships, regardless of sanctions restrictions.

What was previously an occasional dodgy rail shipment is now a regular flow of general cargo vessels that ferried a conservative estimate of 9m rounds of artillery and ammunition last year.

Other shipments include more than 11,000 troops in 2024, and another 3,000 troops in the early months of this year; along with rocket launchers, vehicles, self-propelled guns and other types of heavy artillery.

There were also at least 100 ballistic missiles in the mix, “which were subsequently launched into Ukraine to destroy civilian infrastructure and terrorise populated areas such as Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia”.

You won’t be able to track the majority of that via AIS, or rely on the UN Security Council’s panel of experts to give you the details because that was effectively disbanded by Russia’s veto last year.

This hasn’t stopped the systematic examination of hundreds of satellite images required to track the state-sponsored obfuscation, but it has reduced the impact of the research, which no longer carries that multilateral badge of objectivity. Instead, these reports now fall into the easily dismissed pile of politically motivated attacks.

So, when the US threatens to expand the list of front companies and ships involved in these trades, and Western states call on all flag states to reject these ships, there are fewer people paying attention.

Much of the high-value trade is carried out on Russian and North Korean vessels that few would have the appetite to investigate on the water. But there are several vessels out there, flagged by the likes of Tanzania and various fake flag administrations, that should probably be subjected to the same scrutiny being paid to Russian shadow fleet vessels heading through the Gulf of Finland.

Open Source Intelligence reports don’t stop dangerous ships operating outside of all safety and security norms. That’s a job for other states.

While governments weigh up the risk of that particularly political conundrum, North Korea is ramping up its trading opportunities with both Russia and China.

Where there is a will, there is a way.

Where there is a profit to be turned, there is a flag state willing to take the business.

Richard Meade
Editor-in-chief, Lloyd’s List

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